Box office preview: ‘Twisters’ hits landfall as the next big summer blockbuster

We’re midway through the month of July with only a few more weeks to the summer, and it’s time to get into the next potential mega-blockbuster, “Twisters.” Read on for Gold Derby’s box office preview.

Summer blockbusters have existed for as long as Steven Spielberg has been making movies, but it was only in the mid-’90s when studios realized that they could create movies considered “event viewing” that moviegoers would want to rush out to see opening weekend. The Jan De Bont-directed “Twister,” co-written by Michael Crichton (and actually executive produced by Spielberg through his Amblin company), was one of these back in 1996. Starring Helen Hunt and Bill Paxton, as well as an ensemble cast that included Philip Seymour Hoffman, Cary Elwes, and even future filmmaker, Todd Field, it opened with $41 million in its early May 1996 release, which was good for that time. It went on to gross $241.7 million domestic and slightly more overseas.

It’s been almost 30 years since that movie was released, and Universal and Warner Bros. have teamed for the thematic sequel “Twisters,” which pairs the idea of destructive weather with a trio of hot young actors – Glen Powell, Daisy Edgar-Jones (“Normal People”) and Anthony Ramos (“A Star is Born”). “Twisters” is directed by Lee Isaac Chung, who was nominated for an Oscar for directing the personal indie drama, “Minari,” back in 2021.

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In many ways, “Twisters” will be seen as a litmus test for Powell’s star power, following his key role in Tom Cruise‘s blockbuster “Top Gun: Maverick” in 2022 – another sequel that took over two decades to make – and the success of his Sony rom-com “Anyone But You” with Sydney Sweeney. Powell’s most recent role in Richard Linklater‘s “Hit Man” was well received, but being a Netflix movie, there’s no box office for comparisons. On the other hand, this is Edgar-Jones’ first movie since her hit drama “Where the Crawdads Sing” in 2022 (also for Sony), so it’s just as much about whether she can find more fans with this kind of movie.

Disaster films were big business in the ’70s with huge hits like “Earthquake” and “The Towering Inferno,” but they were revived in the 21st Century by the likes of filmmaker Roland Emmerich, whose alien invasion movie, “Independence Day” came out a few months after “Twister,” and became the biggest movie that year.

You can see some comparisons to a few more recent disaster films – three of them by Emmerich – below:

5/10/96 — “Twister” $41.1m (open), $241.7m (domestic), $495.7m (global)

5/28/04 — “The Day After Tomorrow” $68.7m (o), $186.7 (d), $555.8m (g)

11/13/09 — “2012” $65.3m (o), $166.1m (d), $757.7m (g)

10/20/17 — “Geostorm” $13.7m (o), $33.7m (d), $220.8m (g)

2/4/22 — “Moonfall” $9.9m (o), $19.1m (d), $39.9 (g)

In more recent years, disaster films have been more common from foreign countries and for streaming/VOD, although Gerard Butler‘s “Greenland” was planned for theatrical release but ended up going to VOD due to the pandemic. Butler’s previous disaster film, “Geostorm,” opened with just $13.7 million and only grossed $33.7 million domestically in 2017, though it did significantly better overseas, as you can see above.

Universal is handling the domestic release for “Twisters” with Warner Bros. handling international, releasing the movie overseas into 38 markets last weekend to the tune of $11.5 million. The early release led to mostly positive reviews earlier than usual with the movie currently at 81% on Rotten Tomatoes.

“Twisters” seems like it should be good to open with more than $50 million this weekend, and it could even open over $60 million, which would make it only the fifth movie this year to make more than that amount its opening weekend.

Even with “Twisters” leading the way, it shouldn’t affect the two animated sequels too much as they drop to second and third place, while last weekend‘s #2 movie, the horror film, “Longlegs,” will probably have a bit of a drop in its second weekend, probably to fourth place.

IFC Films is offering some indie horror as counterprogramming by giving a theatrical release to Shudder’s “Oddity,” from Irish filmmaker Damian McCarthy, about a psychologist (Gwilym Lee) whose wife was killed in their isolated home, so he calls upon her twin sister (Carolyn Bracken) and her wooden mannequin to help learn what happened. “Oddity” won the Audience Award in the Midnighter section of the SXSW Film and TV Festival earlier this year, but like the recent “In a Violent Nature,” it will be relying on marketing and word-of-mouth rather than its star power to get moviegoers into theaters. Despite not having a theater count readily available, this probably make less than $2 million this weekend, potentially hurt by any word-of-mouth business for “Longlegs.”

There aren’t nearly as many limited releases this weekend as in past weeks, so this weekend will really be all about “Twisters,” and you can check back on Sunday to see how that and other movies fared.

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