How Black Women Feel About Biden, Kamala Harris, and 2024
A Cut survey shows a warning sign for Democrats ahead of Election Day.
If the 2020 presidential election left the Democratic Party with a clear message, it was that Joe Biden made it to the White House thanks to the loyalty of Black voters who showed up to vote in swing states in droves. Black women, in particular, have been touted as the party’s most loyal voting bloc, so to better understand what these critical voters care about heading into the 2024 election, The Cut asked 1,200 Black women how they feel about the candidates and which issues are most important to them. More than half said they plan to vote for Biden, foreshadowing a weaker level of support than the 95 percent who pulled the lever for him and Kamala Harris four years ago. The findings also contained a timely warning sign: If positive perceptions of Biden, Harris, or the Democratic Party decline before Election Day, Black women may be less inclined to go to the polls.
The survey is the first of four the Cut is running between now and November. It polled Black women ages 18 to 55 between June 3 and June 14 — notably, before the president’s disastrous debate performance sparked calls for him to exit the race, a gunman made an attempt on former president Donald Trump’s life, and Trump announced J.D. Vance as his running mate.
While 87 percent of respondents are registered to vote, 79 percent planned to show up to the polls in November, the survey found. When asked whom they would vote for if the election were held today, 64 percent said Biden, while 18 percent would vote for Trump, 10 percent would vote for Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and 2 percent would vote for Cornel West.
Support for Biden is stronger among Black women ages 35 to 55 with 68 percent saying they would vote for him, compared to 58 percent of Black women ages 18 to 34. (Women ages 35 to 55 also had more favorable perceptions of Biden, Harris, and the Democratic Party than younger voters.) Support for Trump is stronger among the younger cohort with 21 percent of Black women ages 18 to 34 likely to vote for the former president, compared to 16 percent of Black women ages 35 to 55.
The survey also found a correlation between positive views of Biden, Harris, and the Democratic Party and an increase in the likelihood of Black women voting in November. While those who are unlikely to vote have significantly poorer perceptions of the Democratic Party, Biden, and Harris, their perceptions of the Republican Party and Trump are the same as those of Black women who are likely to vote in November. This suggests that dissatisfaction with the Democratic Party and its candidates may be driving those women away from voting in November.
Despite chatter about Harris somehow being underqualified for the presidency or underperforming in her job as vice-president, which has escalated in the weeks since the presidential debate after some conservatives attacked her as a “DEI hire,” the survey found that more Black women approved of Harris’s job performance than Biden’s. Sixty-eight percent approved of how the vice-president is handling her role, compared to 63 percent in Biden’s case. Black women ages 18 to 34 were more likely to say they feel moderate or strong pressure to support Harris.
In terms of the issues that are top of mind for Black women heading into November, racial justice and equity, inflation and the economy, and crime rank as the most important to them in nearly equal measure. Less than a third of Black women said they feel the country is moving in the right direction on racial justice or crime — 28 percent and 21 percent, respectively — but this doesn’t appear to affect their likelihood to vote for any particular candidate. And while 44 percent said they have faced racial discrimination and 14 percent said they’ve dealt with police violence, these experiences don’t appear to be influencing which presidential candidate they choose to support, either.
Abortion, student debt, and threats to democracy ranked of secondary importance to Black women, while the Israel-Hamas war, immigration, and climate change ranked as even less important to these voters. On the subject of abortion, half of Black women are in favor of nationwide legalization of the procedure. Just 14 percent of Black women support a nationwide abortion ban, while 15 percent support states deciding their own laws and another 22 percent are undecided on their abortion position. Unsurprisingly, Biden voters are more likely to support legalizing abortion nationwide, while Trump supporters are more likely to back a nationwide ban or regulation at the state level.
Of the Black women surveyed, 41 percent said they’d discussed or argued with someone in their household about their choice for president. Most Black women say the other members of their household plan to vote for the same candidate as them, while those who plan to support Trump are more likely to have gotten into it with a relative over whom they’re voting for. These conversations are surely evolving post-debate as Biden once again looks to Black voters to save him.
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