Philippines Push Back Over China’s South Sea Actions – Analysis

By Rorie Fajardo-Jarilla

As the Philippines’ leaders weigh the next steps in response to increasing tension with China in the disputed South China Sea, Manila appears to be belatedly reflecting public sentiment and calling for its claims to the resource-rich territory to be protected – and gaining political support for it.

In July 2016, the Philippines won a landmark decision by an arbitration court at The Hague which ruled that China had no territorial claims to the country’s waters. The court also said the continued presence of China’s vessels, island-building, patrolling, and other actions violated the sovereign rights of the Philippines.

Nonetheless, China has not abandoned its historical claim to neither these waters, nor others claimed by Vietnam, Malaysia, and Taiwan.

The latest confrontation erupted on June 17 during the Philippines’ resupply mission to the Second Thomas Shoal in the country’s waters in the South China Sea. This is where the Philippine Navy vessel BRP Sierra Madre is stationed, with marines manning the vessel symbolising the country’s last line of defence against increasing Chinese incursion. Since the grounded ship serves as a military station, the navy conducts routine resupply missions of food, fuel, and other necessities.

The Philippine military said China’s coast guard intentionally rammed their vessels, resulting in severe injuries to sailors and structural damage to their ships. It also released footage showing China’s coast guards brandishing swords and knives.

China, however, said the Philippines’ resupply vessel “deliberately and dangerously” approached a Chinese ship in their claimed waters, thus prompting them to take measures to protect their territory.

The incident - which the Philippine military likened to an attack by “pirates” - adds to a series of confrontations between China and the Philippines over the South China Sea (also referred to the West Philippine Sea in Manila) over the past months.

Philippine president Ferdinand Marcos, Jr said in the aftermath of the latest confrontation that his country was “not in the business of instigating wars” but confirmed that it would not yield to “any foreign power”, - although he did not refer specifically to China in his speech.

His predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte, oversaw a period of warming of relations with China.

Marcos Jr, popularly nicknamed Bongbong, who won a 2022 landslide victory on a platform promising unity and a flexible foreign policy, initially seemed to continue this policy. But since February 2023 his administration has become more critical over China’s increasingly aggressive behaviour in the South China Sea, simultaneously providing US troops more access to Philippine military bases.

Marcos Jr, the son and namesake of his dictator father who was ousted in a popular uprising in 1986, continually enjoys high approval ratings in relation to his administration’s approach on the South China Sea.

An independent survey which took place in the first quarter of this year, (although the results were only released in early June) said that six out of 10 Filipinos fully support Marcos Jr’s combined approach of diplomacy and military action to assert the country’s rights in the South China Sea.

The survey also said nine out of ten Filipinos distrust China and agreed that their Asian neighbour remains to be the most serious threat to the Philippines’ sovereignty, followed by Russia.

“Filipinos like to see their leaders standing up to other countries threatening our sovereignty – like China,” said a long-time political activist and organiser of rural poor communities, who requested anonymity citing security concerns.

He said that greater civic participation in and support for the Marcos administration’s shift in policy and rhetoric in relation to China indicated that the public now saw that their government was finally on the right path when dealing with China’s increasing aggression.

Civil society initiatives have included the December Human Rights Day 2023 mission of the NGO coalition Atin ‘To! (This is Ours!) to bring supplies and gifts to Filipino military and fisherfolk in the Second Thomas Shoal, which was later called off amid the presence of China’s coast guard in the area. Nonetheless, the participants made a symbolic point, telling media that it was their responsibility to also take action, and not just rely on the military.

A few months later, in May 2024, Atin ‘To! successfully delivered supplies to the Scarborough Shoal, with support from the Philippines’ coast guard.

Beijing’s military actions in the South China Sea and diplomatic statements are now increasingly seen as diametrically opposed to each other: Last week’s incident, so far the most violent and provocative as analysts viewed, totally contrasts Beijing’s commitment with Manila in January 2024 to improve communications and manage conflicts around the South China Sea.

And while Manila is so far gaining public support on its South China Sea approach, some believe it should be consistent in dealing with China.

“Marcos Jr and the government may be playing tough now on the water dispute, but it remains unclear on how it deals with other issues involving China threatening national interest,” said Darius Martinez,editor of the long-running academicTri-Collegejournal Diliman Review.

Ongoing tensions include reports of an influx of Chinese nationals at universities in areas deemed militarily sensitive, which the government is investigating. It is also currently looking into about 300 offshore gaming companies illegally operating in the Philippines, most linked to Chinese nationals.

Six years of very warm relations with China under then-president Duterte appears to have served as a cautionary tale for most Filipinos. Now, they seem to prefer leaders finally deciding to stand up and protect the country’s sovereignty in the South China Sea.

• About the author: Rorie Fajardo-Jarilla is IWPR ASIA PROGRAMME COORDINATOR & PHILIPPINES country director
• Source: This article was published by IWPR