This story was made in collaboration with data consultancy TheNerve.

MANILA, Philippines – Unverified claims on social media continue to move faster than a speeding bullet.

On July 13 (US time), former US president Donald Trump survived an assassination attempt at a campaign speech in Butler, Pennsylvania. As the news shook readers across the globe and authorities began their probe, netizens jumped in with their own conclusions and speculations.

The failed assassination attempt against Trump will have serious ramifications on the US presidential election, which is only four months away. And, as Filipinos know all too well, widespread disinformation can make or break election campaigns.

To understand the conversations on Trump among Filipino communities online, Rappler analyzed public Facebook and X posts containing mentions of Trump shared between midnight of Sunday, July 14, and noon of Sunday, July 15. Analyzed Facebook posts were locally relevant to the Philippines, which was determined by the geographic distribution and density of the page or group’s followers. Analyzed X posts were from users based in the Philippines.

While the discussion around the assassination attempt was a combination of straight news updates, prayers and statements of support for Trump, and criticism of the US political landscape, false claims and conspiracy theories still found their way across online platforms, where the reach of verified news reports is limited.

Users baselessly pointed fingers before – and after – shooter was identified

Pennsylvania runs on Eastern time (ET), which is 12 hours behind Philippine time. According to multiple news sources, shots were first fired at the rally around 6:11 pm on Saturday, July 13, which is 6:11 am on Sunday, July 14, in Philippine time. 

CBS News and the Associated Press reported that it was only until past 1 am ET when the gunman was identified as Thomas Matthew Crooks. Once the shooter’s name was released, journalists and fact-checkers found that the gunman was a registered Republican. This means that in the Philippines, details about the shooter were only revealed past 1 pm on Sunday.

But as early as Sunday morning in the Philippines, critics were already blaming the Left and the Democrats for the assassination attempt, without evidence.

Within minutes of the shooting, Republican figures, including US Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene, were already claiming that Democrats and the Left were responsible for the attack.

Filipino social media users echoed these claims, painting leftists and liberals as violent individuals desperate to take down Trump. Facebook groups where these claims were seeded include “Diliman Book Club,” which previously shared false claims about the Marcos family’s gold, and “FilAm Voter,” a political community based in San Francisco, California.

Even after details about the shooter were made public, conservatives didn’t stop blaming their political opponents for the attack. Past Sunday afternoon, social media users in the Philippines continued claiming that Democrats, the Left, and liberals were responsible for the shooting. 

Tactics that paint leftists as violent are not new to Filipinos, who’ve witnessed orchestrated red-tagging campaigns that exaggerate the threat of communism. (New war: How the propaganda network shifted from targeting ‘addicts’ to activists)

Partisan divide on inciting violence

As proof of America’s polarized landscape, users on both sides of the US political spectrum blamed their rivals for inciting and encouraging violence. 

In a lengthy video, Lynn Agno of Lynn Channel – who has been fact-checked by Rappler and other news outlets multiple times – nitpicked on US President Joe Biden’s earlier comment that it was “time to put Trump in a bull’s-eye.” Biden said this in a private call to donors on July 8, but conservatives had taken it literally since the failed assassination, blaming him for inciting violence. 

Biden has since said his choice to use the word “bull’s-eye” was a mistake, but other Filipinos online had already shared posts that pointed fingers at Biden.

Other social media users, including Greene, posted compilations of Democrats and other public figures supposedly calling for violence against Trump and Republicans. These included Biden’s 2018 statement that he would “beat the hell out of” Trump if they went to high school together. 

The compilation posted by Greene included a clip of Vice President Kamala Harris’ joke on the talk show Ellen, where she was asked in 2018 if she would rather be stuck in an elevator with Trump, then-vice president Mike Pence, and then-attorney general Jeff Sessions. Harris, without explicitly answering the question, responded by saying, “Does one of us have to come out alive?”

Conservatives, including the inflammatory Libs of TikTok account, also slammed people who were openly upset and frustrated that the gunman had missed and that Trump survived the attempt. Users portrayed them as “mentally unstable” people who “have a low regard for human life.”

To counter this, critics on X pointed out that Trump and his supporters advocate for lenient gun control laws and have also been known to spew violent statements. It’s a fact that Trump said there would be a “bloodbath” if he was not reelected, and that there may be “potential death and destruction” if he’s charged in a hush-money case. Trump and social media have also played a pivotal role in the horrific Capitol riot in January 2021.

‘Staged’ assassination attempt?

But not all unverified claims were amplified by conservatives. 

Some social media users based in the Philippines, who do not necessarily support Trump, reposted claims and memes that suggested the assassination attempt on Trump was merely staged. 

This theory remains baseless. US-based fact checking organization PolitiFact even rated such claims as “Pants on Fire,” which they reserve for statements that are “not accurate and [make] a ridiculous claim.”

Such claims that violent incidents are staged are not new, according to PolitiFact. For instance, conspiracy theorist Alex Jones had claimed that the 2012 shooting at Sandy Hook Elementary School was a hoax, which resulted in a slew of lawsuits and court orders that demanded he pay $1.5 billion to relatives of the shooting victims.

In the same video where Agno nitpicked on Biden’s “bull’s-eye” comment, she also amplified the debunked conspiracy theory that the US Federal Bureau of Investigation instigated the 2021 Capitol riot. The video has over 7,700 views and 600 shares as of writing.

Recent elections around the world proved that rampant disinformation online can influence voters and poll results offline. Fact-checkers and journalists are committed to debunking claim after claim and reporting critically, but unless disinformation is stopped and platforms are held accountable, the spread of lies on social media continues to pose risks to democracy and national security. – Rappler.com

This study was made in collaboration with TheNerve, a Manila-based consultancy that specializes in analyzing data to bring forth powerful insights and narratives. Believing that data can deliver real-world impact, the company enables its partners across a wide range of industries to cut through the clutter and extract value and meaning from various datasets. The insights guide partners’ business decisions and help them engage with their communities better. Composed of a team of data scientists, business strategists, award-winning storytellers, and designers, the company is on a mission to transform data science into data relevance.