Assessing the strengths and weaknesses of American League contenders
How do the Royals stack up?
The second half of the season begins today and the Royals find themselves in the hunt. The rest of the season will be a 60+ game sprint to the end with teams jostling for position to be one of the six teams in each league to earn an invitation to post-season action.
The Royals certainly have their strengths and weaknesses, but what about fellow AL contenders? Here are the teams in the hunt for the post-season, ranked by their current seed.f
1. Cleveland Guardians (58-37, first place in the Central)
Run differential: +85
Strengths: The best bullpen in the game. Closer Emmanuel Clase has been nearly unhittable and they have depth with eight relievers who have 20 appearances and a sub-4.00 ERA. They have three All-Stars in their lineup - first baseman Josh Naylor, third baseman José Ramírez, and outfielder Steven Kwan. Their defense has been fantastic, leading baseball in Defensive Runs Saved.
Weaknesses: The starting pitching was long a strength, but it has become a weakness this year with the sixth-worst ERA in baseball. Triston McKenzie was demoted, and they’ve had to rely on journeyman Ben Lively to stabilize their rotation. Adding a veteran starter is likely their top priority for the trade deadline. They had some holes in their outfield too, but rookies Daniel Scheemann and Jhonkesy Noel have played well in limited action so far.
Key to a post-season run: They have built up a pretty good buffer for themselves with an ability to just plug guys in whenever someone goes down. They have the third-toughest remaining schedule in the American League. They have eight remaining games against the Twins and seven against the Royals, the two teams chasing them in the division. They seem poised for their sixth post-season appearance in nine years, but will ownership allow them to acquire a piece that can help them win their first championship in 76 years?
2. Baltimore Orioles (58-38, first place in the East)
Run differential: +80
Strengths: Offense. They’re fourth in baseball in runs scored per-game, with seven of their nine starters posting an OPS+ of 100 or better. They’ve smashed the most home runs in baseball with seven hitters already in double-digit home run totals. They’ve been the best AL team against teams with a .500 record or better. They have crazy depth - Jacson Holliday, Coby Mayo, Heston Kjerstad, and Connor Norby are all top prospects raking in Triple-A that could contribute later this year.
Weaknesses: The offense is second-worst in walks - a free-swinging approach may cause problems in October. With Kyle Bradish out, they could use another starting pitcher.
Key to a post-season run: This is a young, loaded team that has some post-season experience after last year. They may look for another shutdown arm in the bullpen - in the post-season the margins matter - and they would be one of the only teams that would have the pieces to make a run at acquiring A’s rookie Mason Miller.
3. Seattle Mariners (52-46), first place in the West
Run differential: +19
Strengths: They have allowed the second-fewest runs-per-game in baseball with the third-lowest ERA and the lowest walk rate. They have four starting pitchers with 100+ innings and an ERA below 3.65. Andrés Muñoz has been one of the hardest closers to hit.
Weaknesses: They’re hitting .219 as a team, the lowest in baseball with the highest strikeout rate. Cal Raleigh is their only regular with an OPS+ over 100. They’ve been awful on the road with a 22-28 record. They’ve beaten up on their divisional rivals, going 18-8 within the division, but under .500 against everyone else.
Key to a post-season run: They definitely need to add a bat, so expect GM Jerry Dipoto to be active at the trade deadline. They could really use Julio Rodriguez bouncing back to his star potential after a rough first half. This team has won 88+ games in each of the last three years but have just two playoff wins to show for it.
4. New York Yankees (58-40, first Wild Card)
Run differential: +106
Strengths: They can mash. They lead all of baseball in runs-per-game, have the highest walk rate, and have hit the second-most home runs. Young starting pitchers Luis Gil and Clarke Schmidt (until his injury) were solid, Carlos Rodón rebounded well, and Gerrit Cole is back and healthy.
Weaknesses: Their pitchers have the ninth-highest walk rate and in the last 30 days have a 5.42 ERA, second-worst in baseball. The bullpen is full of unproven journeymen and is probably an injury away from being very thin. Their run production has come despite some of the worst production in baseball from the leadoff spot. Injuries to Giancarlo Stanton and Anthony Rizzo have hurt the length of the lineup and exposed their lack of depth. They have the fewest stolen bases in the American League.
Key to a post-season run: The offense still seems pretty one-dimensional, which has drawn criticism the last few years for their short post-season runs. They could use a table-setter for their big boppers and a bat that can serve as a hedge against injuries to their older players. Clarke Schmidt won’t return until possibly September, and Luis Gil may need to have his innings limited, so the Yankees may have a fluid situation in their rotation, requiring an extra arm. The Yankees have the easiest remaining schedule in the league.
5. Minnesota Twins (54-42, second Wild Card)
Run differential: +47
Strengths: They are fifth in runs-scored-per-game with an outstanding rebound from Carlos Correa and surprising performances from role players like Jose Miranda, Carlos Santana, and All-Star Willi Castro. Their pitchers have the highest strikeout-rate in baseball. Closer Jhoan Durán has one of the best fastballs in the game and has converted 15 of 16 saves opportunities. They’ve had good depth with players like prospect Brooks Lee stepping up when Royce Lewis got hurt.
Weaknesses: Their pitchers have the seventh-highest home run rate in baseball. The starters are in the prime of their career, yet have a 4.11 ERA, seventh-worst in baseball. They have the sixth-fewest stolen bases. They’ve beaten up on bad teams, going 32-13 against teams with a losing record.
Key to a post-season run: The Twins have a pretty good team, but have found it difficult to get over the hump and make a deep post-season run. They could use an upgrade in their rotation and possible another outfield bat, as well as some better post-season luck.
6. Boston Red Sox (53-42, third Wild Card)
Run differential: +44
Strengths: They have the third-most productive outfield in baseball, with All-Star Jaren Duran accompanied by Tyler O’Neill, Wilyer Abreu, Rob Refsnyder, and Ceddanne Rafaela. They have patched over some holes in the lineup with solid performances from role players. They are sixth in baseball in steals. The bullpen has been surprisingly good with the lowest walk rate in baseball.
Weaknesses: Their hitters have the fourth-highest strikeout rate. They have two terrific starting pitchers in Tanner Houck and Kutter Crawford, but the rest of the rotation has had mixed results. Their defense is one of the worst in Outs Above Average. They are 12-5 in one-run games, suggesting they may have benefitted from some good luck.
Key to a post-season run: The Red Sox have the hardest remaining schedule of any team in the American League with 23 games left against teams currently in a playoff spot, plus 9 games against the competitive Royals and Astros. They have overachieved, but development from some of their younger players suggests they just might be better than anyone thought.
7. Kansas City Royals (52-45, two games back of a Wild Card)
Run differential: +60
Strengths: The starting pitchers have the fourth-best ERA in baseball at 3.57 and the sixth-best strikeout rate. Bobby Witt Jr. has played like an MVP candidate. Their hitters have the third-lowest strikeout rate. Only six teams have more steals. The defense has been terrific, particularly up the middle.
Weaknesses: The bullpen. They have the second-lowest strikeout rate and the eighth-highest walk rate. Their outfield has the worst offense production in baseball. Overall, the offense has performed much worse away from Kauffman Stadium - .they have a 774 OPS with 5.16 runs-per-game at home and a .649 OPS with 3.93 runs-per-game on the road.
Key to a post-season run: The Royals have greatly improved in one year and with their rotation and the play of Bobby Witt Jr., they have a chance at making some noise in the post-season in a short series. But they must figure out their bullpen situation to have any hope of making the post-season, and they could probably use a table setter at the top of their lineup, or some bat that can lengthen their lineup.
8. Houston Astros (50-46, one game back of West, 3.5 games back of a Wild Card)
Run differential: +49
Strengths: Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez have been among the best hitters in baseball, and Jose Altuve is having a very good year. Only Padres hitters are more difficult to strike out. Josh Hader has converted 18-of-19 save opportunities.
Weaknesses: They have a huge hole at first base after Jose Abreu fell off a cliff, leading to his release. Their hitters have the fifth-lowest walk rate. Their pitching staff has been ravaged by injuries - Justin Verlander, Cristian Javier, and Jose Urquidy are all out. Middle relief has been a problem, with 13 blown saves other than Hader.
Key to a post-season run: The Astros got off to a dreadful 12-24 start, but are 38-22 since that and could storm back into contention. They are 7-17 in one-run games, suggesting some bad luck. They are experienced and talented, and they may be aggressive in trying to make another deep post-season run before their window begins to close. Adding another starting pitcher and a first base bat will be high priorities at the trade deadline.