Playoff-esque: Mariners vs. Astros Series Preview
The Mariners start the second half with a huge series against the Astros.
Allow me to indulge in a bit of hyperbole for a moment: you should consider this weekend’s series against the Astros a three-game playoff series. Of course there will be 61 games remaining in the regular season after this weekend, and a lot can happen in that amount of time, not to mention the looming trade deadline potentially changing the shape of the playoff picture, but there’s a lot riding on this series. These two teams finished the first half on dramatically different trajectories and Seattle needs to flip that script if they want to have any hope of challenging for a division title this year.
Let’s lay out the stakes at play this weekend: The last time the Mariners and Astros faced off in late May, Seattle was rebounding from that particularly rough East Coast road trip, but still tentatively holding onto first place in the division. After a big four-game series win against Houston, the M’s were 5.5 games ahead of them in the standings. Since then, the Astros have had the second best record in the AL while the Mariners have barely played above .500, erasing 4.5 games of that deficit. A series win by the Astros would launch them into first place in the division for the first time this season. Meanwhile, a series win for the M’s would allow them to ever so slightly tighten their grip on first, and more importantly, clinch the season series — and therefore the tiebreaker in the standings. This is also the last time these two teams meet until the very last week of the season, making this a particularly important series to directly affect their place in the standings.
Much of the Astros turnaround over the last month and a half is thanks to a much improved pitching staff rather than an offensive outburst. Their lineup is still pretty top heavy with their superstars carrying the majority of the load. They’ve been without Kyle Tucker for nearly this entire stretch after he suffered a leg contusion on June 3 and he doesn’t really have a clear timeline for his return. Alex Bregman has stepped up to cover for that loss, breaking out of his early season slump and returning to his pull happy approach and characteristic run production. Houston also released José Abreu in mid-June which was more a case of addition by subtraction. The back half of their lineup is still struggling to produce consistently, but getting that black hole out of their lineup means they can fit Joey Loperfido in their lineup regularly while pushing Alvarez to designated hitter full time.
Probable Pitchers
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Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports
Hunter Brown has had an extremely weird season so far. He was absolutely pummeled to start the season, running a 9.78 ERA through his first six starts. He experimented with adding a sinker to his repertoire beginning with his start against the Mariners on May 5 and it’s worked pretty well; he’s run a 2.75 ERA in 12 starts since adding that pitch to his arsenal. He doesn’t have pinpoint accuracy with his fastballs, leading to far too many heaters left over the heart of the plate. He also doesn’t have as much confidence in his secondary offerings which means his pitch mix is extremely fastball heavy, even if the sinker has allowed him to diversify his offerings. He’s currently outperforming his peripherals by almost a full run and a seven-run blowup against the Twins on July 6 shows that he hasn’t figured everything out yet.
From a previous series preview:
A minor elbow injury cost Framber Valdez a couple of weeks of the first month of the season. Valdez wasn’t quite as good last year as he was in his huge 2022 breakout season. A new cutter really helped him down the stretch but that pitch has disappeared from his pitch mix this year. His two breaking balls are still fantastic and true plus plus pitches, but his arsenal needs something that sits between them and his 95 mph sinker.
Valdez has struggled in his two starts against the Mariners this year; he’s allowed a combined eight runs in 11.1 innings while striking out just seven.
From a previous series preview:
Ronel Blanco has been one of the lone bright spots for the Astros this season. He spun a no-hitter in his first start of the season — and just his eighth big league start of his career — and then followed it up with another 5.2 innings of no-hit ball in his next start. A late-bloomer for the Astros, he only returned to the starting rotation last year after spending the majority of his minor league career pitching out of the bullpen. The biggest difference for him this year is a changeup that’s decimating hitters. His fastball is only okay — he can locate it at the top of the zone really well but it doesn’t have a standout shape — and his cutter/slider is decent.
Blanco allowed three runs on five hits and two walks in six innings in his previous outing against the M’s.
The Big Picture:
Every division leader in the AL fell backwards into the All-Star break. The Orioles lost seven of their last 10 games heading into the break and just barely avoided a backbreaking sweep at the hands of the Yankees last weekend. The Guardians were just a hair better than Baltimore, going 4-6 to end the first half with back-to-back series losses to the Tigers and Rays last week. Meanwhile, the Rangers won their series against the Astros last weekend, giving them a glimmer of hope that they could still sneak into the playoff picture. Texas hosts the Orioles this weekend in a big test of that hope.