Tampa Bay Rays trade deadline primer

Who will stay and who will go?

The MLB trade deadline is fast approaching.

This year the deadline falls on Tuesday, July 30th, at 6pm. By the time the deadline arrives, the Tampa Bay Rays could have a very different roster of players. Thus far in 2024, the Rays season has been plagued by injuries, illness, and lackluster play from key contributors. This has already led to a couple of trades as Phil Maton and Aaron Civale are already with new teams.

Entering play on Friday, the Rays are currently 48-48. They currently sit in 4th place in the division, 10 games behind the Baltimore Orioles. Meanwhile, they trail the third Wild Card spot by 5.5 games with the Houston Astros and Kansas City Royals both ahead of them in the chase.

There is reason for hope from this roster as they strung together several consecutive series victories in June and early July, but the sweep at the hands of the Rangers seemed to kill off some momentum. Between now and the trade deadline, the Rays will play a four game set with the Yankees, three games with Toronto, and three against Cincinnati. These next ten games will play a crucial role in determining how the Rays will proceed.

So, which players could be moved?

Almost Definitely

• Amed Rosario
  The Rays picked versatile 28-year old Rosario on a 1 year, $1.5M deal just prior to spring training. He impressed during the spring as made plenty of hard contact and played all over the diamond. His spring success carried over to the regular season when injuries forced Rosario all around the field. Meanwhile, Rosario thrived offensively. Thus far in 2024, Rosario is hitting .308/.332/.418 with 2 HR and 7 stolen bases over 69 games, registering 116 wRC+ and accruing 0.7 fWAR.
  The reason Rosario could be traded is that his place on the roster could be needed as Junior Caminero inches closer to finishing his rehab. Rosario plays most every day as a hitter against LHP or a defensive replacement; however, with Taylor Walls and Jose Caballero both ahead of him on the depth chart, he’d be the first position player to be let go in favor of Caminero.

On the Bubble

• Zach Eflin
  The Rays made a splash last offseason when they signed Zach Eflin to the largest contract in franchise history. Eflin rewarded the Rays by providing the best year of his career in 2023 as he compiled a 3.50 ERA | 3.01 FIP over 177 2⁄3 innings pitched. It’s been more of the same for Eflin in 2024 as he currently possesses a 3.99 ERA | 3.65 FIP over 99 1⁄3 innings pitched this season.
  The reason Eflin might get traded is that opposing teams will pay a steep price for dependable starting pitching. Meanwhile, the Rays have Eflin under contract through the 2025 season, with Eflin set to make $18M next year. Although Eflin’s salary is an excellent deal for a solid starting pitcher, it’s rich for the Rays blood and it makes Eflin all the more alluring to an opposing team. Also, the Rays have Jeffrey Springs nearing the completion of his rehab assignment from Tommy John surgery, thus forcing the Rays into making a decision.

They’ll Have to be Blown Away

• Isaac Paredes
  Paredes has flummoxed most of the baseball scouting world with his success. Not a natural power hitter, Paredes has enough lift in his swing and bat control that he is able to pull fly balls into home runs with ease and has turned himself into the top home run hitter on the Rays roster. Since joining the Rays in 2022, Paredes is hitting .240/.342/.464 with 66 HR over 345 games, registering a 131 wRC+ and accruing 9.7 fWAR. Paredes is making $3.4M in 2024 after going through arbitration for the first time and is still under contract through the 2027 season.
  The allure of an inexpensive (salary wise) power hitting third baseman who works quality at-bats with low strikeout numbers is enticing to many teams. However, the Rays know what they have in Paredes and the price tag to acquire him will be astronomical.

Maybe Under the Right Circumstances?

• Randy Arozarena
  Arozarena will bring his star with him to wherever he ends up. A crowd favorite at each stadium in baseball, Arozarena has a star power unparalleled in recent franchise history. Since joining the Rays in a trade prior to the 2020 season, Arozarena has been a model of consistency. From 2020 through the end of 2023, Arozarena hit .264/.350/.450 with 70 HR and 78 stolen bases, registering a 128 wRC+ and accruing 10.7 fWAR (and that’s NOT accounting for his historic postseason prowess).
  The 2024 campaign started off abysmally for Arozarena as he put up 37 wRC+ in April. Since then, Arozarena has clawed his way back to a solid campaign as he produced 104 wRC+ in May and then 163 wRC+ in June. Now, overall, Arozarena is hitting .202/.309/.392 with a 98 wRC+ and 0.4 fWAR. The 29-year old Arozarena is making $8.1M this season and is under contract through 2026. The downtrodden start to the season may have decreased Arozarena’s value to other teams, but the Rays will still ask for the moon in negotiations.
• Yandy Diaz
  Diaz is now in his sixth season with the Tampa Bay Rays having established himself as possibly the best hitter in franchise history. Entering the season, Diaz had hit .291/.384/.448 with 60 HR over 521 games, registering a 137 wRC+ and accruing 12.7 fWAR. The Rays rewarded Diaz with a contract extension prior to 2023 that keeps the talented hitter under contract through the 2025 season with a team option for 2026. Diaz rewarded the Rays by going out winning the Silver Slugger and the first batting title in franchise history.
  The reigning American League batting champion also endured a horrendous start to the 2024 season, but like Arozarena, turned it around in May. Since May 3rd, Diaz is hitting .302/.354/.453 over 280 plate appearances, registering a 133 wRC+. Having once again established himself as one of the premier hitters in baseball, other teams will certainly be interested in Diaz, but at what price?