Iran: An Impregnable Fortress At The Crossroads Of Worlds – Analysis
In October 2018, Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, delivered a speech at Tehran’s Azadi Stadium in front of 80,000 members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to promote the patriotic political program “Islam First.” He urged his fellow countrymen to take pride in Iran’s prestige in the region and the world, and its invincibility.
“The essence of my speech today,” Khamenei said, “first represents Iranian magnificence; second, the sovereignty of the Islamic Republic; third, the invincibility of the Iranian nation.” Khamenei emphasized that Islam has enabled Iran to maintain its territorial integrity and to “independently” resist “global arrogance” (an Iranian euphemism for Western imperialism, particularly American). “I point to the invincibility of the Iranian nation - which, of course, is due to Islam. This invincibility can be observed in the nation’s victory… against Saddam’s invasion and resistance against hostile conspiracies over the past 40 years.”
There is no doubt that the invincibility of the Islamic Republic of Iran has been greatly contributed to by Islam, theocratic Islamic order, which has fully defined Iranian society for nearly half a century. The return to the original faith has revitalized the Iranian nation, making it proud and resilient to challenges in the region and globally. However, Iran has been and remains unconquerable due to its natural characteristics. Although recently there have been indications that a (greater) war between Iran and Israel could break out, and that the United States might intervene with a potential invasion, a detailed look at Iran’s geography shows that such a scenario is unlikely.
Unique Geography
Iran is located in the heart of the Middle East and is a country that has fascinated visitors for millennia with its rich historical and cultural heritage, but above all, its unique geography. Iran is geographically extremely diverse. It stretches from the Caucasus in the north to the Persian Gulf in the south, bordered by mountains to the north, west, and east, and exposed to a hot desert landscape in the south. Due to its geographical position, Iran is practically an impregnable fortress. History has proven this countless times.
Iran is a country of great contrasts in climate and relief, from the dense, humid forests of Mazandaran province in the north to the dry shores of the Persian and Oman Gulfs. From the high and cold mountain ranges of Alborz, Zagros, and the Caucasus to the deserts in the center and south. Besides areas of fertile agricultural land expanded through creative irrigation from underground waters, there are vast areas of mountains and deserts or semi-deserts, which are useless for growing crops but suitable for livestock grazing in certain parts of the year.
Mountains, Plateaus, and Deserts
Mountains protect Iran on three sides (the Alborz, Zagros, and East Iranian mountain ranges), while the sea (the Persian or Arabian Gulf) protects it on one side. In the north of the country is the Alborz mountain range. It extends for 600 km, from the border with Armenia along the entire length of the southern coast of the Caspian Sea to the border with Turkmenistan and Afghanistan. Alborz offers spectacular natural landscapes, including Iran’s highest peak, a stratovolcano, Mount Damavand, which is 5,610 meters high. Alborz not only offers stunning views but is also the source of rivers that shape fertile valleys like the Caspian, where many agricultural crops are grown.
In the west, the Zagros mountain range stretches along the Iran-Iraq and Iran-Turkey borders, continuing all the way to the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf. Its total length is 1,600 km. The mountain range has numerous peaks over 3,000 or 4,000 meters high. Besides forming a natural boundary, it is rich in oil and gas. Most of Iran’s oil fields are located in Zagros. Additionally, the massif is home to various ethnic groups that shape the country’s cultural diversity. The eastern part of Iran is protected by the East Iranian massif, followed by plateaus covered by two salt deserts, Dasht-e Kavir (Great Salt Desert) and Dasht-e Lut. Apart from some scattered oases, these deserts are uninhabited. The center of Iran consists of several plateaus collectively known as the Iranian (Persian) Plateau. The average altitude of the plateau is about 900 meters, but several mountains rising above it exceed 3,000 meters. Iran has only two lowlands: the Khuzestan Plain in the southwest and the coastal plain of the Caspian Sea in the north.
Diverse Climate
A distinctive feature of Iran is its diverse climate. From subtropical climates on the shores of the Caspian Sea to desert climates in the central part of the country, Iran offers diverse living and agricultural conditions. Northwestern regions near the border with Turkey have a temperate climate with abundant rainfall, enabling the development of rich vegetation and forests. Conversely, the southern and eastern parts of the country are predominantly desert, with sparse rainfall and extremely high temperatures during the summer. These areas face challenges of drought and desertification but are also home to numerous nomadic communities adapted to harsh conditions.
The Impossibility of Conquering Iran from the East, North, and West
The Mongols were the last power to successfully invade Iran in the early 13th century, and since then, all invaders have been stopped in the mountains. It is necessary to consider the potential course of a foreign invasion, which could only be an American invasion, given Iran’s geography. Planning an American invasion of eastern Iran from western Afghanistan would be logistically impossible, not only because the Taliban are in power there but because of the shape of Iran’s eastern borders. First, there is the East Iranian massif along the border area. Secondly, traveling from the Iran-Afghanistan border to most major Iranian cities would require passing through two large deserts: Dasht-e Lut and Dasht-e Kavir.
Temperatures on the surface of the sand in the Dasht-e Lut desert rise to 70 degrees Celsius. The Dasht-e Kavir desert consists of a salt marsh (kavir) covering dense mud. It is very easy to break through the salt layer and sink into the mud. Such terrain would not allow Americans to use mechanized and armored forces. Attempting an US invasion of Iran from the north and west seems no easier. Although the northwestern part of Iran borders Turkey, an American NATO ally, Ankara will certainly not allow the US to use its territory as a starting point for an invasion. This has already happened in the case of Iraq in 2003. Regardless, the Zagros mountain massif, which defines the Iran-Turkey and much of the Iran-Iraq border, would make an invasion completely impractical.
Shatt al-Arab
A potential but unlikely possibility of penetration into western Iran is in the far south, where the Tigris and Euphrates rivers merge to form the Shatt al-Arab river, about 200 km long, which flows into the Persian Gulf. This was the invasion route used by Iraqi forces in the 1980s. However, Iraqis discovered in practice that it is a marshy area that is easy to defend. But even if invading forces cross this area, they would soon encounter the Zagros. Nevertheless, the Shatt al-Arab basin has long been Iran’s Achilles’ heel, which is one reason why Tehran has put a lot of effort into gaining influence over Shiite Iraq. Due to good Iran-Iraq relations, it will be difficult for Americans to use Iraq as a springboard for an attack.
The Possibility of an Amphibious Invasion from the South
The only chance for a US attack would be from the southern side, from the direction of the Persian and Oman Gulfs. Iran’s coastline is 2,815 km long. Iranian authorities have been preparing for such a scenario for decades. Iranians have focused on denying access to the US Navy by using a vast number of precision-guided and conventional missiles, defense ships, drones, submarines, and mines. Numerous bays, islands, and islets along the coast are excellent hiding places for small pirate ships attacking large ships and for camouflaging missile systems.
The narrow space of the Oman and Persian Gulfs makes it difficult for large American warships and aircraft carriers to navigate effectively, making them easy targets for Iranian missiles and other naval-air forces. If necessary, Iran could retaliate for the invasion by closing the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf, through which 25% of the world’s oil trade and one-third of the world’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade passes. At its narrowest point, the strait is only 34 km wide. If the Strait of Hormuz were closed, oil and gas prices would skyrocket in global markets.
The Unconquerable Vast Area and Huge Population of Iran
Iran is enormous in both area and population. The Islamic Republic, with a territorial area of 1,648,195 square kilometers, is larger than France, Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands, Portugal, and Spain combined. Conquerors would not fare well in Iran, as exemplified by Iraq. Today, Iran has roughly three times the population of Iraq in 2003, when the US invasion occurred. Iran has six cities with over a million inhabitants.
The capital, Tehran, with 9.6 million residents, is the 38th largest city in the world. Tehran is larger than world metropolises such as New York (7.9 million), Riyadh (7.8 million), Madrid (6.7 million), and Rome (4.3 million). The terrain is not conducive to the movement of a large invading army and mechanized forces. Since almost all major Iranian cities are located in the northern part of the country, reaching them would require superhuman efforts. With a population of 89 million, Iran is the 17th most populous country in the world and equals the population of Canada, Poland, and Sweden combined. If foreign invaders somehow penetrated deeper into Iran, they would face not only geographical obstacles but also the vast and densely populated hostile urban areas, posing an almost insurmountable challenge.
Iran's terrain is more complex than Iraq's, with more mountains, mountain ranges, and slopes, presenting a greater challenge for effective control of the conquered territory. Outside cities and suburbs, foreign invaders would face enormous difficulties, whether they were guarding the coast, mountain areas, or settlements on the plateaus. They would quickly confront the challenge of fierce guerrilla resistance, including suicide bombers and other daring attacks, inspired by loyalty to Islam and the revolution. Most of Iran's population lives outside cities in the mountains. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has long been preparing guerrilla campaign plans against invading forces trying to penetrate from the coast to northern Iranian cities.
Strong Motivation of Iranians to Defend the Revolution
American experiences in Vietnam, Somalia, Iraq, Afghanistan, and elsewhere are important reminders that Americans are rarely welcomed, even when their occupation theoretically brings noble "gifts" such as freedom, human rights, and democracy. Iran lost about half a million people fighting Iraq in the 1980s in what Iranians believe was a war inspired by America to destroy the Iranian Islamic Revolution. The Iran-Iraq War motivated citizens to support the Sharia-based Shia regime. It is hard to believe that Iranians would simply allow the occupation of their country, even if it involves dissidents who gained strength after the protests following the tragic death of Mahsa Amini in the autumn of 2022.
Finally, the Iranian armed forces are the 15th strongest military in the world. At any given moment, they have 587,000 active military personnel and 200,000 reservists who can be immediately activated in case of danger. Iranians have a well-developed program of drones, ballistic and cruise missiles, tanks, and armored vehicles. If they were to develop nuclear bombs, they would undoubtedly be the most powerful force in the Middle East. All this is well known to American, Israeli, Saudi, and other strategists who would like to see a regime change in Tehran. Therefore, they rely on internal rebellion and some new Orange Revolution, as the Islamic Republic cannot lose a conventional war.