Tropical Depression Butchoy exits PAR; Carina stays over Philippine Sea

PAGASA is also monitoring the southwest monsoon and its potential effects in the coming days

MANILA, Philippines – Tropical Depression Butchoy left the Philippine Area of Responsibility on Saturday morning, July 20, just hours after it developed, leaving only Tropical Depression Carina inside PAR.

Though outside PAR, Butchoy is still influencing the southwest monsoon or habagat. Eventually, Carina will also enhance the southwest monsoon.

Butchoy

In a bulletin issued at 11 am on Saturday, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said Butchoy was already 565 kilometers west of Iba, Zambales, outside PAR.

The tropical depression is moving west northwest at just 10 kilometers per hour (km/h). It is heading for Hainan, China, where it could make landfall on Monday evening, July 22.

As of Saturday morning, Butchoy continued to have maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h and gustiness of up to 70 km/h.

PAGASA said Butchoy “will likely have limited intensification within the next two days,” but it might strengthen into a tropical storm by Sunday, July 21. This could later be followed by rapid weakening after it hits China, added the weather bureau.

Butchoy had developed along with Carina on Friday evening, July 19. By that time, it was already too far from land to directly trigger rain and tropical cyclone wind signals were not raised. But as a low pressure area, it had affected parts of the country earlier in the week, alongside the southwest monsoon.

Carina

Meanwhile, Carina remains over the Philippine Sea, located 510 kilometers east northeast of Virac, Catanduanes, as of 10 am on Saturday. It is moving west northwest at a relatively fast 30 km/h.

This tropical depression has maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h and gustiness of up to 70 km/h. It slightly intensified before dawn on Saturday, and is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm possibly within the day.

“Beginning on Monday, the tropical cyclone will likely intensify further at a faster rate, eventually reaching typhoon category on Tuesday (July 23),” PAGASA added.

The weather bureau still expects Carina to maintain “a mainly offshore path over the next five days” and stay far from Philippine landmass.

Due to Carina’s projected path, it remains “less likely” to cause heavy rain in the next three days. However, PAGASA also said there may be changes in future forecasts, which would “affect the heavy rainfall outlook.”

The weather bureau added that it is not ruling out the raising of Signal No. 1 for extreme Northern Luzon and the eastern part of Northern Luzon.

Southwest monsoon

While Butchoy is out of PAR and Carina does not have a direct impact on the Philippines yet, the southwest monsoon will be affecting several areas in the western part of the country in the next three days.

PAGASA warned of moderate to heavy rain (50 to 100 millimeters) in the following areas:

Saturday, July 20

• Kalayaan Islands

Sunday, July 21

• Zambales, Bataan, Kalayaan Islands

Monday, July 22

• Metro Manila, Ilocos Region, Zambales, Bataan, Batangas, Cavite, Occidental Mindoro, northern part of Palawan

Floods and landslides are possible.

The southwest monsoon will also bring gusty conditions to these areas:

Saturday, July 20, and Sunday, July 21

• Kalayaan Islands

Monday, July 22

• Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Mimaropa, Bicol, Zambales, Bataan, Western Visayas

ALSO ON RAPPLER

• LIVE UPDATES: Philippines vs Chinese Taipei-White – Jones Cup 2024
• Baguio’s Krishnah Marie Gravidez is Miss World Philippines 2024
• Left something at NAIA? Don’t lose hope, as this Swedish traveler learned

---

For coastal waters, PAGASA said the southwest monsoon enhanced by Butchoy will cause slight to moderate seas — with waves 0.5 to 2 meters high — in the Ilocos Region, Zambales, Bataan, Occidental Mindoro, and the northern part of Palawan including Calamian (west coast) and Kalayaan Islands on Saturday.

Carina and the southwest monsoon will also cause moderate seas — with waves 1 to 2 meters high — in the eastern seaboard of Mindanao.

Butchoy and Carina are the Philippines’ second and third tropical cyclones for 2024, respectively. PAGASA previously estimated there may be two or three tropical cyclones in July. – Rappler.com