Why July has been quiet in the Atlantic Basin
It has been well-documented that the 2024 tropical weather season will be above normal for the Atlantic Basin.
AUSTIN (KXAN) -- It has been well-documented that the 2024 tropical weather season will be above normal for the Atlantic Basin. The basin includes the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico. The National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration predicted 17 to 25 named storms, 8 to 13 of which would be hurricanes. The prediction of major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) was 4 to 7.
We're in the second month of the season. There have been three named storms. This season got off to a slow start since 2014 due to a very large heat dome centered over Mexico and Central America.
The first named storm was Tropical Storm Alberto, a short-lived storm that formed in the western Gulf on June 19 and made landfall the next day. Another short-lived storm was Tropical Storm Chris which developed in the southwest Gulf on June 30 and made landfall on the morning of July 1.
In between the two quick hitters was Beryl. We covered Beryl for 12 days. Beryl quickly escalated through its lifecycle. It made history when it became the earliest forming Category 4, then a Category 5 hurricane. It peaked as a Category 5 on July 2. It ultimately would make landfall at Matagorda, Texas, on July 8.
Did Beryl zap all the energy out of the basin? Is there a reason it's been so quiet in the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf since July 8? It's not the sea temperatures. The three bodies of water that make up the basin are still seeing above-average water temperatures needed to fuel tropical systems. Hurricane experts have acknowledged that after a major storm has passed through those warm waters, cooler waters from below the surface head to the surface to create a cool pool trail.
The answer lies in the sky. Yes. We have talked about the plumes of Saharan dust. When the dry dust is thick it will absorb sunlight. The absorption is significant because it means the sun is not able to adequately heat the ocean's water.
That's just one reason the tropics have been so quiet. But it should be noted that July, like June, is normally not an active month at all. Last year, there was just one tropical weather system in the seventh month of the year. Hurricane Don became the first hurricane of the 2023 season, reaching Category 1 strength on July 22. Don did not make landfall. August 2023 was a busy month with six named storms.
That was the year Hurricane Idalia made landfall on the morning of August 30 near Keaton Beach, Florida, as a Category 3 storm with maximum sustained winds of 125 mph. The hurricane was responsible for twelve fatalities and an estimated $3.6 billion in damage. This is the same storm that started in the eastern Pacific and Central America.
There were two tropical storms in July 2022, both of which never made it to hurricane status. Tropical Storm Bonnie and Tropical Storm Colin were both born on July 1. T.S. Bonnie would make landfall the next day south of Costa Rica's border with Nicaragua. Colin would make landfall near Hunting Island, SC.
One of the many footnotes from the 2022 season is there were no tropical storms that formed in August. There was an unfavorable wind shear pattern with drier air and the Saharan Air Layer limiting any development through the rest of July and all of August.
So, more than half of July has passed with no further activity.
September 10 is the average peak of the season bordered by the middle of August to the middle of October as the time when we expect to see most of our tropical activity. By then, the Saharan Air Layer should close up shop for the season that will allow for developing storms thus making the second half of the hurricane season busy.