With Biden out, is Kamala Harris the Democrats’ trump card for the US elections?

Tiny cracks in the Democratic coalition quickly became an insurmountable chasm for President Joe Biden following his disastrous debate performance on June 27. As a result, Biden became “the first sitting president to stand down from a possible reelection since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1968.”

Announcing his decision to bow out of the US presidential race on Sunday, Biden quickly endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris — a decision that is likely to put to rest the internal divisions roiling the Democratic Party. The move is also an opportunity for Democrats to pivot in an electoral cycle where they find themselves haemorrhaging support to Donald Trump and his united Republican Party. Now, the focus for the Democrats will shift towards reassuring their core voter base, following which the hard, perhaps near impossible task, to win the November elections will begin in earnest.

Questions about Biden’s age and capability to govern started coming up during the 2020 election cycle. At the time, he positioned himself as a “as a bridge, not as anything else.” Many in the party expected that once Biden defeated Donald Trump, he would be open to passing on the torch. Calls for him to do just that were rejected by Biden and his supporters within the party well before the Democratic primary season, with the president staunch in his belief that he was the only candidate that could defeat Trump, leading many party stalwarts to grudgingly accept the president’s wish to run for reelection.

But Biden’s rapid physical and mental decline — visible especially over the last year under the glare of high-definition cameras and highly controlled media appearances — led to doubts among core Democratic voters. The campaign’s efforts to brush these concerns aside backfired during the debate, leading to a growing chorus of political leaders and donors along with a polling majority of Democratic voters demanding that the president reconsider his decision. Biden’s efforts to hold the front ultimately failed as polls clearly began to show that voters were increasingly uncomfortable with the prospects of Biden ruling for four more years given his age. The lack of a clear path to victory, particularly with a rapid drop in party support, ultimately convinced Biden that his time was up.

Biden’s legacy as president

Biden’s blue collar upbringing, his long career as a public servant, and his role as vice president to America’s first black president are key anchors in the story of his long political career. At a time when the country was reeling from a pandemic and was deeply divided, Biden ran on a promise to bring normalcy to the presidency and stability to America’s political system. An insurrection on January 6 added more instability into the mix, putting even more pressure on the administration.

Biden’s foreign policy choices following the October 7 attack will forever cast a dark shadow over his entire legacy. His embrace of an increasingly radical Israel over the last few months, at a time when the International Court of Justice found it “plausible” that Israel has committed acts in violation of the Genocide Convention, has permanently tarnished his reputation. In addition, a chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan also deserves a mention when it comes to consequential foreign policy mistakes made by his administration.

But his administration also got a lot right on the international front. A notable achievement was the expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (Nato) after the chaotic period during the Trump presidency. Right-sizing America’s footprint in East Asia also gathered momentum, in particular through positive engagement with allies including Australia and Japan.

But it is on the domestic front where Biden leaves his legacy as an immensely consequential and impactful president who executed a progressive agenda with remarkable success. America’s society and economy was facing tremendous upheaval when he entered the White House. The pandemic was raging, unemployment was a rising concern, and questions about the economy were top of the mind for most Americans.

The Biden administration was quickly able to invest in a quick economic recovery while passing far-reaching legislation such as a $1 trillion infrastructure package in a bipartisan manner. While economic concerns still remain top of mind for voters, the broad success of these policies meant that the much-anticipated “red wave” failed to materialise in the midterm elections.

As a result, under Biden’s watch, the Democrats had “one of the four best midterms for the party controlling the White House in the last century.” Since then, however, the administration and the Democratic Party has stumbled and found itself losing support; high inflation has played a key part. As a result, Biden and the Democrats have found it difficult to compete against a resurgent Republican Party that has finally and completely embraced Donald Trump and the MAGA movement.

Democrats likely to unite

Over the next few hours, it is likely that the Democrats will unite behind Harris, who has been endorsed by Joe Biden. Focus will quickly shift towards the Democratic Convention to be held in Chicago next month and the process through which Harris may be confirmed as the Democratic nominee. In addition, the choice of vice president will draw a lot of focus and attention, and it is likely that the party will choose a candidate who is able to draw in support from the “blue wall” states that are so critical for winning the election in November; Harris has also recently polled better than Biden in some key states. She is also likely to be able to distance herself from Biden’s Israel policy — as Vice President, Harris has done a far better job humanising Palestinians than Joe Biden.

All of this means that it is likely that the Democratic Convention will be one of the most energised conventions in recent memory. This is likely to draw a lot of media coverage — and by extension scrutiny — on the party. At a time when Trump has been basking in positive media coverage since the debate, this focus on the Democrats may annoy the Republican nominee, who may seek to find new ways to draw attention towards him and his agenda — some Democrats may want to see just that, as Trump seeking attention may find it difficult to stay disciplined in messaging.

Democrats are also likely to now draw attention towards Donald Trump’s many weaknesses, including his party’s stance on abortion — something the party does not like talking about these days — and Project 2025, which is a “900-page wish list [that] could reshape daily life for millions of Americans.” After weeks of enormous focus on an ageing candidate in the form of Biden, Democrats may also seek to flip the script on Trump, who himself has been increasingly incoherent on the campaign trail.

Hard reset expected in the campaign

Biden dropping out of the race is fundamentally going to reshape the election cycle. Harris appeals to a different set of constituencies and voters. In addition, she can now pick a candidate that can add more energy in key swing states. In terms of strategic approach, we are now going to see a very different election cycle.

The Trump campaign was fully geared up to compete against Biden, focusing on his age and mental faculty as a means to undermine his reelection chances. That messaging strategy is not going to work on a new nominee, because of which the Trump campaign will have to go back to the drawing board. The Trump campaign has already “prepared opposition research books” on Kamala Harris and are ready with attack ads.

The nature of the race on the Democratic side is also going to fundamentally change in the coming weeks, especially if Harris is the nominee. At a time when the party was bleeding support in core constituencies and states, Harris is likely to inject new energy as the first Black woman to possibly become president. In addition, as a woman, she may be able to draw sharper focus on the Republican position on abortion, a key electoral concern for tens of millions of women across America. Energising these two key constituencies — women and Black voters — can help Democrats mobilise votes in key states.

There’s still over 100 days to go until voters go to polls and the race is nowhere close to being done. America is deeply polarised today and a lot can happen in the days and weeks to come. It is impossible to predict who will ultimately win the election in November, but what is certain is that Democrats are finally breathing a sigh of relief and glad that they can try to unite behind a candidate who has a better shot at defeating Donald Trump than Joe Biden.