RFK Jr. adds uncertainty to an already tumultuous election

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is keeping political watchers wondering about his next move as he shows no signs of dropping out despite mediocre polls and a minimal chance of winning.

On Sunday, in the hours after President Biden announced he was dropping out of the race and endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris as his replacement, Kennedy reiterated that he saw a path to victory for his third-party presidential bid.

Kennedy continues to puzzle both Democrats and Republicans, who worry how his presence will impact an already tumultuous presidential election, which has already been rocked by the attempted assassination of Donald Trump and Biden's decision to drop out.

It's not entirely clear how Kennedy would impact the race between Trump and Harris, should the vice president officially become the Democratic nominee. A polling average from The Hill and Decision Desk HQ shows Trump leading Harris by 6 points, 43 percent to 37 percent, in a three-way matchup that includes Kennedy. The independent candidate, meanwhile, garners 6 percent.

But that average only looks at a total of six polls, meaning it's not a clear indicator of where a three-way race stands.

The air of uncertainty hovering over Kennedy's bid has put Trump on notice. Last week, a leaked phone call confirmed that Trump spoke with Kennedy and asked for his endorsement — the latest indication of the influence the former Democrat wields in the race despite being a longshot.

“It does seem like he’s trying to keep his options open,” said a former senior Trump campaign official last week about Kennedy’s conversation with the 45th president, which occurred as the Republican National Convention was in full swing in Milwaukee.

Trump and Kennedy have kept close tabs on each other throughout the cycle. Trump’s endorsement request suggests he not only sees Kennedy as a potential asset, but that he also might have some concerns that the environmental lawyer could draw support away from the former president. 

“I would love you to do something,” Trump said. “I think it’ll be so good for you and so big for you.”

“We’re gonna win,” Trump added to Kennedy, who offered a cool, one word, “yeah,” in response.

Trump’s sentiment was bolstered by his son, Donald Trump Jr., in a sit-down with Axios’ Mike Allen.

“Maybe there’s a great place for him somewhere in an administration,” Trump Jr. said.

An assortment of Republicans and Kennedy supporters are warming to the idea of having him nearby as Trump works to reclaim the West Wing. They hope Kennedy might embrace an “if you can’t beat em join ’em” mentality — but that appears to be just wish-casting for now. 

Kennedy in his comments on Sunday criticized Trump as well as Democrats, accusing the former president of sowing discord in the U.S. His remarks suggest the independent candidate, at least for now, has no intention of dropping out.

Still, some Kennedy allies have expressed approval about the lines of communication between him and Trump.

One source close to Kennedy’s campaign last week said they were “very happy and excited” to see the two candidates speak one-on-one.

“There’s a large segment of the electorate that was rooting for them to team up for a unity ticket of sorts,” the pro-Kennedy source said, who was granted anonymity to speak freely about the possible ways Kennedy could contribute. 

The call, which was leaked on X, was an apparent attempt by Trump to broaden his support with independents, with which Kennedy has regularly performed decently in polls. An expanded coalition could come in handy against so many unknown scenarios, including how Harris or another Democrat at the top of the ticket could roil the election.

While the leaked call was a blip in an intense news cycle for Trump, it created a bigger splash for Kennedy, who is still angling for the nomination despite having yet to secure ballot access for more than 20 states, according to his campaign’s public tracker. 

Kennedy for his part said he was “mortified” the call came out.  

“When President Trump called me I was taping with an in-house videographer,” Kennedy wrote in a social media post, verifying the call as legitimate and not doctored. “I should have ordered the videographer to stop recording immediately.”

Kennedy’s allies, some of whom are pleased with the idea of a Trump team-up, were upset about the leak more so than the content. 

“I was also horrified that a private high-level conversation of that caliber was both filmed, then leaked,” the source close to his campaign said. “Bobby did the right thing by apologizing and owning it.”

Tony Lysons, who runs the American Values super PAC supporting Kennedy’s third-party bid, suggested that he would accept some type of role within Trump’s orbit if he’s re-elected in November. 

“I know that in his heart what he wants to do is fight for the American people,” Lyons said, adding, “If he can serve in some other way, I’m confident he would do it.” 

While there’s mutual intrigue between Kennedy and Trump figures, Democrats see him as an active threat to their already fraught bid to keep the White House. Strategists pointed to the call — which featured anti-vax conspiracy theories  — as another sign that the 70-year-old attorney is closer to Republicans. 

The candidates’ discussion was mostly about vaccines. Kennedy is famously skeptical of the science around some of the most prominent shots, including to prevent diseases in children and the COVID-19 vaccine. Trump seemed to agree with Kennedy’s rhetoric in their talk.

“The video is crystal-clear evidence of what many of us [have] been saying for sometime, Kennedy's campaign is not independent, it is just a stalking horse to help Trump win,” said Doug Gordon, a veteran political operative and founder of UpShift Strategies. 

“It is not a coincidence that the same big money donors funding the Trump campaign are also funding the Kennedy campaign,” Gordon said. 

Speculation is now mounting about what role Kennedy could play if Trump were to reclaim the White House

“If Kennedy helps Trump win, it is safe to assume he will get rewarded with a position in a Trump Administration,” Gordon said.

Democrats largely responded unenthusiastically to the clip, suggesting it’s more of the same GOP-friendly posturing Kennedy has conducted throughout the cycle, including when he was running against Biden in the Democratic primary earlier this cycle.

“RFK [Jr.s] base is the same as Trump’s so a call between him and the former president leveraging a potential position in the campaign or a would be admin isn't a novel idea,” said Ameshia Cross, a Democratic strategist.

“RFK Jr. showed who he was a while ago and he's made in MAGA image,” Cross added. “Trump values loyalty and wants loyalists close to him. That tells everyone all they need to know.”