Diamondbacks series preview: The defending National League champs come to town
Their pennant defense hasn’t gone as planned.
Last fall, the Diamondbacks went on a run to win the second National League pennant in club history. They fell to the Rangers in the World Series, but had a good team led by a young star in Corbin Carroll, with expectations they had a window of contention. But the team stumbled out of the gate this year, and were 25-32 by the end of May, the fourth-worst record in the National League.
Arizona Diamondbacks (51-49) vs. Kansas City Royals (55-45) at Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Diamondbacks: 4.91 runs scored/game (5th in MLB), 4.69 runs allowed/game (23rd)
Royals: 4.59 runs scored/game (12th), 3.85 runs allowed/game (4th)
The team righted the ship in June, and have climbed above .500 in July. They have won six of their last eight and just took a road series against the Cubs in Wrigley. They have generally been a good road team this year, going 25-25.
Diamondbacks hitters have the fifth-best on-base percentage and the seventh-lowest strikeout rate. Corbin Carroll has suffered with a disappointing season with the bat, but is second in the game in Baserunning Runs and his 19 steals are tied for 12th-most in baseball.
After a slow start, Gabriel Moreno is hitting .360/.448/.560 in his last 14 games. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has the fourth-lowest walk rate in baseball. Eugenio Suárez has the tenth-highest strikeout rate. Joc Pederson has mashed righties, hitting .281/.379/.502, but is hitting just .177 against lefties.
Defensively, the Diamondbacks rate well in Defensive Runs Saved, with Christian Walker playing as one of the best defensive first basemen in the game, with good numbers from Ketel Marte and Moreno as well.
Yilber Diaz, ranked the #16 prospect in the farm system by MLB Pipeline, makes his third MLB start, having gone six innings with just one run allowed in each of his first two starts. He had a 4.03 ERA in 15 starts across Double-A and Triple-A with 105 strikeouts in 76 innings, but a high walk rate. He throws a 96 mph four-seamer, a knuckle-curve, and a slider that has a 46.7 percent whiff rate.
Despite a 3.20 ERA, earning a championship ring last year, Jordan Montgomery found a soft free agent market this off-season, and signed a one-year, $25 million deal with Arizona. He signed late and has struggled, missing a month of action with right knee inflammation. He is likely to be activated from the Injured List and return on Tuesday. He has been much better on the road so far this year, but has still struggled with a 4.80 ERA in five starts. Righties have killed him, hitting .338/.388/.548 against him.
Ryne Nelson has given up just six runs in 24 1⁄3 innings over his last four outings, a 2.22 ERA. He is a strike-thrower with a low 5.5 percent walk rate and a 42.3 percent groundball rate. The 26-year-old throws a 95 mph four-seamer, a cutter, change-up, slider, and curve.
The Diamondbacks bullpen has a 4.24 ERA, tenth-worst in baseball, with the third-lowest strikeout rate. Their relievers have allowed 43 percent of inherited runners to score, second-highest in baseball. Closer Paul Sewald has converted 15-of-18 save opportunities with all three blown saves coming earlier this month.
Joe Mantiply is one of six pitchers with at least 30 innings pitched and no home runs allowed. Justin Martinez and Ryan Thompson each have a groundball rate over 60 percent. Bryce Jarvis has the fifth-lowest strikeout rate among qualified relievers and the fourth-highest hard-hit rate.
The Diamondbacks are starting to play like the team that made a terrific October run last year, and it is starting to look like they may be buyers at the trade deadline. The Royals are rolling after an easy sweep of the lowly White Sox, but the Diamondbacks should prove to be a much tougher matchup. The Royals have the edge in pitching matchups, but the Diamondbacks can put up some runs, and both bullpens will have to improve their performance to hold a lead.