Richard Gadd (‘Baby Reindeer’) takes the lead in Emmy odds for Best Actor, and it looks like he’ll win the trifecta
Richard Gadd went into the Emmy nominations ranked second in our odds for Best Movie/Limited Actor for his performance as a man dealing with trauma and fighting off the advances of a stalker in “Baby Reindeer.” Since the nominations were announced on July 17, though, he has taken the lead according to the combined predictions of Gold Derby users, which sets him up to take home not just one, but three awards when they’re handed out on September 15.
Jon Hamm (“Fargo“) was the previous front-runner in the category for his role as a corrupt sheriff, but he has since dropped to third place, perhaps because “Fargo” underperformed in acting categories, only scoring three noms; conspicuously missing from the list were expected supporting nominees Jennifer Jason Leigh and Joe Keery. “Baby Reindeer,” meanwhile, submitted four actors for consideration, and all four of them got in.
As of this writing Gadd is backed by six out of nine Expert journalists we’ve surveyed from major media outlets (with many more Experts expected to weigh in before Emmy night), seven out of 10 Gold Derby Editors who cover awards year-round, 19 of our Top 24 Users who got the highest scores predicting last year’s Emmy winners and 19 of our All-Star Top 24 who got the best scores when you combine the last two years’ Emmy prediction results.
But that’s not the only good news for Gadd in our odds. “Baby Reindeer” is also the front-runner for Best Limited Series, so he would collect an additional trophy as a producer. He also penned the entire series and is the heavy favorite for Best Movie/Limited Writing. That’s the same trifecta of awards — acting, producing, writing — that Phoebe Waller-Bridge won when “Fleabag” romped through the Emmys in 2019. So if we’re right, look for history to repeat itself.
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