Trade Profile: A.J. Puk, LHP

Position: RP B/T: L/L
Age: 29 (04/25/1995)

2024 Traditional Stats: 32 G (4 starts), 44 IP, 4.30 ERA, 1.341 WHIP, 3-8, 45 K, 23 BB
2024 Advanced Stats: 101 ERA+, 23.6% K%, 12.0% BB%, 3.41 xERA, 3.62 FIP, 4.32 xFIP, 0.6 fWAR, 0.0 bWAR

Rundown

A.J. Puk‘s season got off to a disastrous start. After a solid year in Miami’s bullpen, he began the year in the starting rotation and got shelled for 14 earned runs on 19 hits with 17 walks in 13 2/3 innings across four starts. Opponents battered him for a .328/.481/.534 slash line before he landed on the injured list on April 20 with left shoulder fatigue.

Upon his return, the Marlins shifted Puk back to the bullpen, and he’s produced strong results since. In 28 games since being activated, Puk has a 2.08 ERA and a 0.758 WHIP with 30 strikeouts against just six walks over 28 2/3 innings. Puk has held opponents to a .456 OPS during that time and hasn’t yielded an earned run in 25 of his 28 outings.

Puk’s best pitch this year has been his four-seamer, with opponents slugging just .188 with a .211 xSLG with no homers against the pitch. However, Puk averaged just 93.3 miles per hour on his fastball as a starter, and since moving to the bullpen, his fastball has averaged 96 MPH. His whiff rate on his four-seamer has jumped to 34.4% and 33.3% on his sinker. While Puk’s sweeper and splitter were both hit hard early in the season, he’s effectively ditched both pitches, and his slider has generated an xSLG of under .200 with a whiff rate near 50%.

Puk has always had strong numbers against left-handed hitters, but he’s been especially dominant against them since returning, holding them to a .136/.174/.205 batting line with 16 strikeouts in 47 plate appearances. Righties haven’t fared much better against him, batting .175/.224/.286 with a .227 wOBA in 67 plate appearances.

Package

Puk is making $1.8 million this year through arbitration and won’t become a free agent until after the 2026 season. His price may also be inflated due to the Marlins’ also being in the NL East, but the teams linked up for a trade last summer when David Robertson was sent to Miami. The Mets received a pair of organizational top-30 prospects (Ronald Hernandez and Marco Vargas) for Robertson, who was a rental, which makes it reasonable to believe that Miami may want more in return for Puk.

Mets Receive:

• A.J. Puk

Marlins Receive:

• Dom Hamel (Mets No. 13 prospect via MLB Pipeline, No. 10 via BA)
• Nick Morabito (Mets No. 25 prospect via MLB Pipeline, unranked via BA)

While Hamel has struggled a bit this season, he performed well in both 2022 and 2023, and could potentially reach the majors later this season. Morabito, meanwhile, is amid his second straight season batting over .300 and has stolen 38 bases between Low-A and High-A this year. With his strong plate discipline, Morabito profiles as a top-of-the-order bat in the future.

Recommendation

The bullpen is the Mets’ biggest area of need still, owning an ugly 5.93 ERA in the month of July. Trading for Puk could help the Mets beyond 2024, too, as he and Edwin Díaz could form a strong back-end duo for the team. Puk also has closing experience, making him the primary option if Díaz needs a day off or if lefties are due to hit in a save situation. While it may cost more to make a trade with a division rival, Puk’s success as a reliever and his years of club control make him worth the cost.

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