The case for the A’s dealing Brent Rooker at the trade deadline

There is no question that Brent Rooker has the makings of a foundational piece for the A’s. He’s been one of the best hitters in baseball over the last two seasons. He earned an All-Star nod last year. He’s been even better as an All-Star snub this year.

For those reasons, then, the question becomes whether Rooker remains with the green and gold when they leave for Sacramento.

With the July 30 trade deadline looming, the A’s have a decision to make. Do they keep Rooker to complement the team’s young core? Or do they cash in their chips while his value is at its peak?

In a vacuum, the A’s have plenty of reasons to keep Rooker. He broke out last season following three major-league seasons as a nomad with the Twins, Padres and Royals, hitting 30 home runs, posting an .817 OPS and earning his first All-Star nod. This season, despite a snub from this year’s Midsummer Classic, he’s been even better. In 89 games this season, he’s slugged 23 home runs and owns a .943 OPS, a mark that ranks higher than Yordan Alvarez (.934).

The underlying metrics support Rooker’s case as one of baseball’s best batsmen. Entering Wednesday, Rooker ranks in the 92nd percentile or better in average exit velocity, Barrel%, Hard-Hit% and expected slugging percentage. Rooker still nearly strikes out a third of the time, but he’s improved his walk rate from 9.3% to 10.6%.

Rooker has also made considerable strides against breaking balls this season. Last season, Rooker had a .141 batting average and .281 slugging percentage against breaking balls. This season, he’s up to hitting .287 with a .670 slugging percentage against spin heading into the A’s series finale against the Astros.

So, then why trade Rooker? The main argument isn’t talent, but time.

Rooker is 29-years-old and Oakland is nowhere near contention. Would the A’s be able to field a playoff-bound team by 2027, the final season before Rooker becomes a free agent? It’s not impossible, but they’d have to absolutely nail their drafting, development and deals given that free agents won’t be flocking Sutter Health Park — not that the A’s have a history of paying top dollar for said services, anyhow. Trading Rooker at his peak value, then, gives the A’s a chance to replenish a farm system that has graduated several prospects in recent years.

The alternative to trading Rooker is standing pat. That decision carries its own risk. Rooker could viably maintain this level of production, but there’s always the possibility of regression, which would, in turn, decrease his value. Additionally, a good chunk of Rooker’s allure lies in the three years and change of team control that a club would have if they acquired him at the deadline. Even if the A’s hypothetically held onto Rooker but traded him in the offseason, his value would likely drop off between now and then.

There hasn’t been a deal in recent years that exactly matches Rooker’s situation: a 29-year-old All-Star primarily used as a designated hitter with three-and-a-half years of control remaining. One vaguely comparable trade would be the Cardinals sending Tommy Pham to the Rays at the 2018 Trade Deadline.

It’s not a one-to-one comparison — Pham was coming off a 23-homer, 25-steal season while providing Gold Glove defense — but there are some similarities. At the time, Pham was 30 and heading into his first year of arbitration. He was elite in 2017, posting a 6.2 WAR (according to Baseball Reference), but like Rooker, he didn’t have an extensive track record of major-league success prior to his breakout.

In exchange for Pham, the Cardinals netted three prospects: outfielder Justin Williams, the Rays’ No. 14 prospect; left-hander Génesis Cabrera, the Rays’ No. 25 prospect; and right-hander Roel Ramirez. Neither Williams nor Cabrera nor Ramirez panned out in St. Louis. The best of the bunch was Cabrera, who had a 4.14 ERA over 174 games with the Cardinals as a reliever. Prospects, of course, are far from guarantees.

There’s no shortage of teams that could use a bat like Rooker’s. The Braves, who famously acquired four outfielders at the 2021 Trade Deadline, haven’t gotten much production from their outfielders with Ronald Acuña Jr. being out for the season and Michael Harris II being sidelined with an injury. The Mariners, Red Sox and Royals haven’t gotten much production from their designated hitters. The Pirates are in the mix for a Wild Card spot and their offense needs juice.

The A’s front office has one more trade deadline before the team dashes to Sacramento, a city and situation that will make building a contender all the more difficult. Trading Rooker, one of the team’s most recognizable players, won’t help the team put fans in seats at Sutter Health Park. Given the challenges that lie ahead, the move may be of the necessary variety.