‘Black swan’: China president warns citizens of impending chaos
Population decline imminent as birth rates hit catastrophic levels
Chinese President Xi Jinping issued a warning to his citizens, telling them they must prepare for “black swan” or “gray rhino” events to become more frequent, signaling China’s decline into crises.
According to a report from Xinhua News Agency, Xi released a document during a third Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee, stating the world is accelerating toward conflict and China’s development is going through a period of uncertainties.
A “gray rhino” is an event where the risk was foreseeable, but overlooked, while a “black swan” is an unexpected event that carries significant consequences.
Examples of “black swan” and “gray rhino” events include the territorial conflict with Taiwan, conflict in the South China Sea, and deteriorating relations with the Philippines. This also includes China facing economic strain, as the nation is now over $30 trillion in debt.
Other domestic issues like the current real estate slump and a rising crime rate are also causing concern to China’s communist government.
After the assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump, the odds of Trump becoming the 47th president substantially increased, forcing China to admit they could face deepening economic woes if Trump makes it back to the White House.
During his first term, Trump imposed a 25% tariff on all Chinese exports coming into the U.S., and has promised to reestablish these tariffs, possibly increasing the tariffs up to 60%.
In the document, over 60 provisions and 300 reform tasks are dedicated to developing improvements to national defense security, defense technology optimization, as well as improving security through military and supply chain enhancements.
Meanwhile, researchers from Fudan University in China have found the nation’s 1.4 billion population is on the precipice of a large decline, and will sustain 19 million deaths per year by 2061, according to a report from the South China Morning Post.
China’s one-child policy has made the population growth come to a grinding halt, and it is close to not being able to recover. Fewer couples are willing to have children after the policy was dropped in 2015, and even fewer Chinese people want to be married.
The birth rate fell dramatically in 2021, reaching its lowest level since records began in 1949 – with only 10 births per 1,000 people. The overall global birth rate was 18 births per 1,000 people in 2021. The low birth rate was blamed on the COVID-19 pandemic, but broke records again in 2022, with only 9.56 million births, and dropped even lower in 2023.
The #BirthRate is falling in most industrialized countries, but #China‘s the most marked. Birth rates there have dipped to their lowest level in more than four decades.
Watch the full episodehttps://t.co/j4QyKLVoEs pic.twitter.com/Wz9izcwTTV
— China in Focus – NTD (@ChinaInFocusNTD) November 24, 2021
Births in China slide 10% to hit their lowest on record
China had just 9.56 million births in 2022, according to the National Health Commission, the lowest figure since records began in 1949.https://t.co/Yv7CyLyR9B— Camus (@newstart_2024) October 27, 2023
Even if China were able to increase their fertility rate above 2.1 replacement level, births would continue to fall indefinitely due to the tanking female childbearing population. The current waterfall in births since ’17 seems unlikely to be arrested by any government “help”.… pic.twitter.com/eMmU15KxRg
— CH (@Econimica) January 25, 2024
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