Rays trade Zach Eflin to Baltimore Orioles

Tampa Bay deals their Opening Day starter to a division rival for three prospects.

The Tampa Bay Rays are trading 2024 Opening Day starter Zach Eflin to the division rival Baltimore Orioles in exchange for three prospects, according to ESPN’s Jeff Passan.

By dealing in division, the Rays are likely getting a notable haul from one of baseball’s deeper farm systems.

Eflin joined the Rays in 2023 after appearing in the World Series for the Phillies, the only organization he’d known up to that point in his career, after the Rays made him their priority signing of the off-season.

Tampa Bay landed Eflin on a three-year, back loaded $40 million deal. He would go on to lead the American League in wins with a 3.50 ERA / 3.01 FIP on a 4.8 fWAR season, placing 6th in the Cy Young voting.

2024 hasn’t been as stellar of a season, with an ERA just above 4.00, mostly due to a lack of strikeouts in May of this season, but he’s a respectable veteran who should slot into the O’s rotation with ease.

The Rays will receive INF Mac Horvath (No. 10 prospect), RHP Jackson Baumeister (No. 17) and OF Matthew Etzel, according to Mark Feinsand and Jeff Passan.

Horvath is primarily a third baseman that was drafted 53rd overall out of UNC in 2023. His hit tool has lagged behind in his development, but he’s got a right handed power stroke that should play. He currently has a 110 wRC+ in High-A. There’s some expectation he will be a utility man at the major league level.

Baumeister was too committed to Florida State to get drafted out of high school in 2021, but was scooped up by the O’s in 2023 at 63rd overall, the highest Mike Elias’s organization has ever drafted a pitcher. Per Baseball America, “The Orioles appreciated his hoppy fastball and potential to further develop his arsenal, but they also valued his aptitude to make adjustments as his season went on and willingness to learn.”

He has a 3.06 ERA over 18 games (18 GS) with a plus fastball that sits 92-94. He’s played with multiple breaking balls and has shown feel for the change. There’s a solid starter’s profile here.

Etzel was drafted in the 10th round in 2023 and got opportunities at three levels to finish the season (Complex, Low-A, High-A) after getting taken 301st out of Southern Mississippi after a solid showing in the Cape Cod League. He bulked up in his first professional off-season, then returned to High-A this season and impressed with a 138 wRC+ over 51 games (214 PA), leading to yet another promotion to Double-A, where he has a 107 wRC+ over 130 PA thus far.

Power remains a question mark, but he is a helium prospect this season, thanks to quality athleticism and an ability to barrel up. Also of note, the beard game is strong.

Overall, I think this is a solid return for Eflin, particularly given the team’s need to clear a rotation spot for Jeffrey Springs, whose return from Tommy John surgery rehab is imminent, and the organization’s lack of desire to pay the $22 million left on Eflin’s contract to finish this and next season.

Criticism of this deal may come if Eflin is the best starter to be dealt at the deadline, which could mean the Rays might have extracted more value by waiting a few more days for a bidding war, but by moving now it’s likely the team is getting players they rate highly.