Kamala Harris VP pick: What do betting markets say?
Vice President Kamala Harris is expected to pick her running mate in the next two weeks, with several leading vice presidential contenders emerging in betting markets.
Vice President Kamala Harris is vetting potential running mates now that she has become the Democratic Party's presumptive presidential nominee, and betting markets have picked out several front-runners.
Harris, who became the presumptive nominee after President Biden's withdrawal from the race on Sunday, is expected to pick her vice presidential nominee before Aug. 7, with the Democratic National Convention in Chicago looming on Aug. 19-22.
Traders and oddsmakers have gravitated toward a trio of potential running mates who have emerged as the leading contenders: Sen. Mark Kelly, D-Ariz.; Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro; and North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper, with several other candidates trailing behind.
Kelly is currently the favorite on BetUS, Polymarket and PredictIt with a 47% chance on BetUS, 42% chance on PredictIt and 36% on Polymarket. By comparison, Shapiro is at 33% on BetUS, 26% on PredictIt and 20% on Polymarket. Cooper is at 18% on BetUS and 16% on both Polymarket and PredictIt.
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"Sen. Mark Kelly has been leading the vice president market since early this week and has gained slightly today to the low 40s," Lindsey Singer, PredictIt public relations director, told FOX Business on Thursday.
"We’ve seen Gov. Josh Shapiro and Gov. Roy Cooper pretty consistently stay in the second- and third-place spots, respectively, during that time period," Singer said. "That said, events are moving quickly and prices are changing just as fast. You’re going to want to keep a close eye on this market."
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Tim Williams, director of public relations for BetUS, told FOX Business, "Mark Kelly is currently the oddsmakers' favorite to be Kamala Harris' pick for VP with +110 odds — a $100 bet returns $110 plus the original stake. That translates to an implied probability of 47.62% that Kelly will be the pick for VP."
"In terms of wages placed, Josh Shapiro — currently in second place in our odds — is actually the bettors' favorite, having attracted 20.71% of the total betting tickets and 22.37% of the total dollar volume," he added.
"Bettors and oddsmakers don't always agree," Williams noted. "For instance, we are seeing significant betting action on [California Gov.] Gavin Newsom despite his relatively long-shot 50/1 (+5,000) odds. In fact, bettors right now are really all over the board, we're even seeing action on super long shots like [former presidential candidate] Andrew Yang, [former Congressman] Beto O'Rourke, [Vermont Sen.] Bernie Sanders and even [Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez], all of which are at 150-to-1 odds."
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Williams added that BetUS oddsmakers "correctly predicted [Ohio Sen.] JD Vance being selected as [former President] Trump's running mate, and our betting odds have a long history of correctly predicting political outcomes, including Trump winning the presidency in 2016, despite the polls predicting otherwise. So with that said, I'd expect to see Mark Kelly as Kamala's running mate."
Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg was among the other leading VP contenders with an 11% chance on BetUS and a 7% chance on PredictIt and Polymarket.
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Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear had an 11% chance on BetUS to go with a 10% chance on PredictIt and 7% chance on Polymarket.