Do vice-presidential picks matter to voters?
COLUMBUS, Ohio (WCMH) -- Republican vice-presidential nominee JD Vance is holding solo rallies around the nation and presumptive Democratic nominee for president, Vice President Kamala Harris, has yet to name her running mate. But how much do those picks matter?
“Historically, who the number two person is doesn't really much matter because most voters vote for the person at the top of the ticket, not who the number two is,” Democratic strategist Dale Butland said. “This time may be different, particularly on the Republican side.”
“People don't vote for vice presidents, they're going to vote for either Donald Trump because they like him or they're going to vote for Kamala because they might like her,” Republican strategist Mike Gonidakis said. “Down ticket races do matter to a smaller degree, but at the end of the day, this is Trump versus Harris and that takes up all the oxygen in the world.”
There have been 49 vice presidents in U.S. history and of those, nine have risen to the presidency due to a sitting president’s death or resignation. The last time it happened was in 1973.
Butland said those who vote for Trump ought to be comfortable with Vance becoming president, should something happen to the 78-year-old if he is elected; he said it is likely not the same for Harris.
“Whoever she picks is not going to be as much a heartbeat away from the presidency,” he said. “Remember, Donald Trump, if he were to be reelected, will be 82 years old by the time he completes his term in office and the actuarial tables say that some something is much more likely to happen to him than it is Kamala Harris. Remember, before Biden dropped out, a lot of people were concerned about who was the number two person or because they didn't think that Biden would be able to last to the end of his term.”
Butland said Harris has to pick a running make “who is going to help her in some of the battleground states.” But Gonidakis does not think Harris has a clear path to a strong VP pick.
“Picking a governor from a specific state will help that state, but if it's not someone that the average person can gravitate to, relate to, like JD Vance, then I'm not sure you get that much of a bump,” Gonidakis said. “You know, there really are no sexy names, in my opinion, for Kamala to choose from.”
Gonidakis said it is “more important that you don’t get it wrong” when choosing a running mate. He pointed to John McCain’s pick of Sarah Palin back in 2008.
“That was probably the wrong choice for John McCain and obviously the voters told him so when he lost to Obama,” he said. “I think it's important to get a stable person that shares your vision. But Kamala Harris's vision is that of Joe Biden because it's the Biden-Harris ticket.”
But Butland argues that Trump’s pick of Vance “is going to turn out to be a major mistake.” Butland said he thinks Vance has a lot of “bizarre beliefs,” and said, “to know him is not necessarily to love him.”
“JD Vance does not bring Trump any voter that he doesn't already have,” Butland said. “It was a play to the MAGA base. [Trump] doubled down with another MAGA person who, in many ways, is even more extreme than he is. And here's the fundamental problem with the Republican ticket. JD Vance has no convictions. Donald Trump has 34.”
But Gonidakis sees it differently. He said Vance’s story is relatable to the average American and will help energize voters beyond Ohio and the MAGA base.
“In picking JD Vance, it's our future. President Trump knows he's going to get four more years in the White House, and he wants someone that shares his vision of America first,” Gonidakis said.
The Democratic National Convention, where a Democratic presidential nominee will be officially chosen, is in less than one month. Sources have said Harris could name her vice-presidential pick sometime in the first week of August.