2024 election hinges on four ‘keys’: Presidential historian

“It takes six negative keys to count out the party holding the White House,” said American University historian Allan Lichtman.

(NewsNation) — The Democrats’ switch from Joe Biden to Kamala Harris as its presumptive 2024 presidential nominee cost the party three “keys” to victory, but four more are in play, according to the historian who came up with the “key” formula.

“It takes six negative keys to count out the party holding the White House,” said American University historian Allan Lichtman.

“Right now … Democrats have lost three keys” by switching to Harris, he told NewsNation’s “Elizabeth Vargas Reports.” He said Democrats lost the “party mandate” key thanks to big losses in the 2022 mid-term elections. He also said Harris loses the “charisma” and “incumbency” keys.

In previous appearances on NewsNation, Lichtman had recommended that, if President Joe Biden were to withdraw from the campaign, he should also resign the presidency to give Harris the advantage of incumbency.

Under Lichtman’s “keys” model, Democrats would have to lose three more keys in order for him to predict a Harris loss. But he says that’s not likely to happen.

On the other hand, he says that four of his keys remain in play: the influence of a third-party candidate, the possibility of major social unrest, a big foreign policy or military failure and a big foreign policy or military success.

Lichtman says the most popular third-party candidate, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., would have to attract about 10% of the electorate to be a factor.

“Possible, but not likely,” he said.

As far as social unrest being a factor: “The demonstrations we saw this spring have fizzled.” A possible but unlikely event, he said, could be violent demonstrations surrounding the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, as happened in 1968.

The shakiest keys, according to Lichtman, are the two centered on foreign policy and the military.

“That’s why you saw Kamala Harris talking about the need for a cease-fire and hostage release (in Gaza). If the Biden administration can pull that off, they may well win the foreign policy/military success key, which they don’t have in hand right now.”

Lichtman discounted Harris’ upcoming decision about a running mate, and simmering talk of Republican dissatisfaction with Trump running mate JD Vance.

“Zero. There’s no key for the vice presidency, and no evidence that vice presidential picks influence the outcome of elections.”

Allan Lichtman’s keys to the White House:

• Party mandate
• Party contest
• Incumbency
• Third party
• Short-term economy
• Long-term economy
• Policy change
• Social unrest
• Scandal
• Foreign/military policy failure
• Foreign/military policy success
• Incumbent charisma
• Challenger charisma