It was a lake this morning
Hello Friends,
Utterly flat this morning. Not a ripple above ankle high. Skies were mostly sunny and the WNW wind has been picking up since a little before daybreak – in line with the BoM’s gale warning.
Soon the wind rattling the stays at RealSurf HQ and anything else loose along the coast today will be joined by a steadily ramping south swell. By this afternoon it should begin to fill in and tomorrow the Bureau is calling for it to be 4-7 metres! The SW wind will be gale force and the weather will be showery on Monday.
It looks as though the showery stuff and stiff to strong S-SW wind will be the pattern to midweek, while the swell intensity remains above the 3 metre mark into Thursday. The GFS model is showing swell period on Mon-Tue in the 10-11 second range but Wednesday the prediction is for a stretch of 13-14 second power through Thursday. Current modelling shows swell size gradually settling to around 2 metres by Saturday. Crucially the models also show swell direction moving around to the SE from Tuesday.
I’ll get a picture of the lake-like conditions soon, and of course will be keeping an eye on things through the day. Maybe check back this evening as I could have time for an update.
Forecast issued at 4:10 am EST on Sunday 28 July 2024.
Weather Situation
A weakening cold front will cross eastern New South Wales later today before entering the Tasman Sea, then a deep low pressure system is forecast to form within the front and become slow moving. The low will generate a vigorous south to southwesterly and large powerful southerly swells along the coast through the first half of the week.
Forecast for Sunday until midnight
Gale Warning for Sunday for Sydney Coast
- Winds
- Westerly 20 to 30 knots turning southwesterly 25 to 30 knots during the day. Winds reaching up to 35 knots offshore in the late evening.
- Seas
- 1 to 2 metres, increasing to 2 to 3 metres during the morning.
- Swell
- Southerly 2 to 3 metres.
- Weather
- Partly cloudy. 80% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm offshore.
- Caution
- Large and powerful surf conditions in the evening are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.
Monday 29 July
Gale Warning for Monday for Sydney Coast
- Winds
- Southwesterly 25 to 35 knots, reaching up to 40 knots offshore.
- Seas
- 2 to 3 metres, increasing to 3 to 4 metres offshore.
- Swell
- Southerly 4 to 7 metres.
- Weather
- Cloudy. 90% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm offshore. Possible small hail offshore in the early morning.
- Caution
- Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.
Tuesday 30 July
- Winds
- South to southwesterly 25 to 30 knots.
- Seas
- 2.5 to 3 metres.
- Swell
- Southerly 4 to 6 metres.
- Weather
- Partly cloudy. 90% chance of showers, with possible small hail in the evening.
- Caution
- Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.