Emmy predictions: Conan O’Brien poised to win a top program award for the first time

Comedian and talk show host Conan O’Brien has been a fixture on television for more than 30 years, and he has four Emmys to show for it. Perhaps surprisingly, though, he has never won an award in a top category for best program. But this year he could come through with a victory for Best Hosted Nonfiction Series or Special for his travel series “Conan O’Brien Must Go.” And according to the combined predictions of Gold Derby users as of this writing, he’ll do just that.

O’Brien’s first two Emmys were for writing: specifically, Best Variety Writing for “Saturday Night Live” (1989) and “Late Night with Conan O’Brien” (2007). But unfortunately his “Late Night” never won Best Variety Series. Then after a, shall we say, eventful season hosting “The Tonight Show,” he left NBC for TBS, where he launched the new talk show “Conan.” He won two more Emmys during his time there, both for Best Creative Achievement in Interactive Media (2012 and 2018), but still no award for Best Variety Series.

Now he’s up for two more prizes: Best Hosted Nonfiction Series or Special and Best Nonfiction Writing for “Conan O’Brien Must Go,” in which he travels the world meeting guests who had been featured on his podcast “Conan O’Brien Needs a Friend.” And he came to this category at just the right time. The winner for the last three years, “Stanly Tucci: Searching for Italy,” is out of the running, opening the door for a brand new champ.

O’Brien gets leading 82/25 odds of winning this category, with support from two out of three Expert journalists (more Experts will weigh in as we get closer to the Emmys), eight out of 11 Gold Derby Editors, 21 of our Top 24 Users and 22 of our All-Star Top 24. That gives him a pretty decisive lead, but the challenge of predicting this race is that, in the absence of Stanley Tucci, there are no previous winners to bank on. In fact, all of this year’s nominees are first-timers in the category except “My Next Guest with David Letterman,” which has been nominated five times but hasn’t won.

So keep that in mind when making your own predictions. O’Brien is the man to beat, but this race is wide open.

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