Is China Building a Secret New Class of Submarines?

Is the Chinese Navy building a new class of submarines?

It is quite likely, at least according to some new satellite imagery.

With the potential of a conflict in the Indo-Pacific increasingly likely in the coming years, submarines are expected to play an important role to the fighting.

A New Class of Chinese Submarine

Tom Shugart, an open-source defense analyst and former submariner, published a series of satellite imagery on his X (formerly Twitter) account showing what is very likely a new class of Chinese submarine under construction.

“Imagery update: looking back at some commercial imagery at Wuchang Shipyard (one of China's conventional submarine builders), if I'm not mistaken I believe there may be a new class of Chinese submarine out there,” Shugart wrote on X.

I recently acquired this interesting image of the shipyard from 26 April 2024.

On the left, you can see what appears to be a freshly-launched Hangor II-class submarine, the 1st of 8 being built for Pakistan.

You can also see the other, possibly new class of boat. pic.twitter.com/txZO8m8fDe

— Tom Shugart (@tshugart3) July 28, 2024

“I recently acquired this interesting image of the shipyard from 26 April 2024. On the left, you can see what appears to be a freshly-launched Hangor II-class submarine, the 1st of 8 being built for Pakistan. You can also see the other, possibly new class of boat,” Shugart stated.

According to U.S. military intelligence estimates, the Chinese Navy has about 45 diesel-powered electric submarines; around half of them belong to Yuan class (Type 039A/B) and have the ability to launch cruise missiles.

But based on Shugart’s analysis of satellite imagery provided by the global imaging company Planet Labs, the Chinese Navy might very well be working on a new type of vessel.

“The ID of the Hangor-II is based on separate reporting of its launch in late Apr, matching nicely with what we see. Comparing the Hangor with images of earlier 039A class boats—and the new boat—the difference is plain to see. The new boat appears substantially longer,” the naval defense analyst said.

A new Chinese submarine could force the U.S. Navy to adjust its posture in the Indo-Pacific, as well as its strategy.

“Looking at multiple images of it, also appears to have an X-stern, a feature not seen before on any Chinese submarine,” Shugart added.

“Measuring to the X-stern, what we can see of the new boat is over 80m long, compared to ~77m overall for the 039A. I'm guessing it's around 83-85m overall,” the former submariner wrote.

An X-stern refers to the configuration of the rudder of the submarine from the traditional cross-shaped design to an “X” one. Among other things, the X-stern design offers better maneuverability and a reduced noise signature, both important traits for the survival and effectiveness of a submarine at war. To be sure, there are benefits to the traditional cross-shaped design, but advances in technology have made the X-stern more viable. The U.S. Navy’s upcoming Columbia-class nuclear submarine will sport an X-stern.

Open source intelligence is becoming increasingly important to military and intelligence officials. Indeed, the U.S. Intelligence Community regularly incorporates open-source collection in its intelligence products to accompany covert collection.

Chinese Submarine Force

The People’s Liberation Army Navy, as is the official name of the Chinese Navy, can field about 61 submarines of all types.

Specifically, Beijing has 45 attack submarines—the aforementioned diesel-powered Yuan vessels—9 nuclear attack submarines, and 7 nuclear ballistic missile submarines.

About the Author: 

Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations and a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ). He holds a BA from the Johns Hopkins University and an MA from the Johns Hopkins’ School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.

All images are Creative Commons and/or Shutterstock.