How long are SF Giants’ playoff odds? Handicapping NL wild card race post-trade deadline
CINCINNATI — When it was time for Farhan Zaidi to address reporters following Tuesday’s MLB trade deadline, the Giants’ president of baseball operations switched venues from his typical perch atop the dugout bench to a more formal setting behind a microphone in Oracle Park’s makeshift interview room.
“The dugout can feel like a little bit of an interrogation at times, but this is a different thing, too,” Zaidi joked, before striking a mostly defensive stance while explaining the Giants’ deadline philosophy to ride a five-man rotation he called the “best in baseball” while giving little juice to a lineup tasked with scoring runs for it.
Despite long playoff odds, the Giants didn’t sell and ship away Blake Snell, Taylor Rogers and other veterans to enhance their farm system. They didn’t commit to the other direction, either, by meaningfully upgrading their major-league roster.
While the Padres beefed up their bullpen and the Cardinals acquired one of the top starters on the market, the Giants weren’t alone and trying to thread the needle.
While there was a flurry of action in the days and hours leading up to the deadline, there weren’t many impact players on the move.
According to Baseball America, not one prospect ranked in its midseason top 100 rankings was included in any trades, as many of the most valuable trade chips stayed put. The White Sox balked at offers for Luis Robert and Garrett Crochet tanked his value with his contract demands. Even if the Giants were open to listening on Snell, they would have required a package of prospects in return, Zaidi said, that could “change the course of future years for this organization and not just slide into this spot or that spot on your Baseball America list.”
“That just didn’t happen,” he said.
It was a difficult market to navigate, but the teams surrounding the Giants in the National League wild card standings took varying approaches. The playoff race is still wide open, with nine teams separated by eight games for three wild card spots.
Considering FanGraphs’ playoff projections, Baseball America’s midseason organizational prospect rankings and the strength of each team’s remaining schedule as calculated by Tankathon.com, here’s a look at how the race is shaping up as the calendar turns to August.
Atlanta Braves
Record: 58-49 (Run differential: +46)
GB: +1.0
Last 10: 4-6
Strength of schedule: .485 (MLB rank: t-24th)
Playoff odds: 84.3%
Additions: RHP Luke Jackson (5.40 ERA, -0.2 fWAR), DH Jorge Soler (.238/.329/.416, 0.8 fWAR)
Subtractions: LHP Tyler Matzek (9.90 ERA, -0.2 fWAR), IF Sabin Ceballos (No. 24 prospect)
It’s been a tough year in Atlanta, with season-ending injuries to Ronald Acuña Jr. and Spencer Strider, but the Braves look intent on trying to reprise their 2021 World Series run — which also took place without Acuña — after reuniting with Soler and Jackson while taking the pair of struggling veterans off the Giants’ hands.
San Diego Padres
Record: 59-51 (+42)
GB: +0.5
Last 10: 9-1
Strength of schedule: .475 (30th)
Playoff odds: 71.7%
Additions: RHP Jason Adam (2.44 ERA, 0.6 fWAR), RHP Bryan Hoeing (2.61 ERA, 0.3 fWAR), LHP Martín Pérez (5.20 ERA, 0.3 fWAR), LHP Tanner Scott (1.18 ERA, 0.9 fWAR)
Subtractions: IF Jay Beshears (No. 23 prospect), OF Homer Bush (No. 10 prospect), RHP Enyel De Los Santos (4.46 ERA, -0.4 fWAR), C J.D. Gonzalez (No. 7 prospect), RHP Dylan Lesko (No. 5 prospect), RHP Adam Mazur (No. 4 prospect), IF Graham Pauley (No. 6 prospect), LHP Robby Snelling (No. 3 prospect)
Did it come as any surprise that A.J. Preller was the most active man at the deadline? Well, it shouldn’t, especially with how the Padres have been playing lately and their favorable remaining schedule. Now they have a fearsome bullpen, too, if still not much in the way of starting pitching or a farm system.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Record: 58-51 (+45)
GB: +/-0
Last 10: 7-3
Strength of schedule: .510 (7th)
Playoff odds: 58.4%
Additions: 1B/DH Josh Bell (.239/.305/.394, -0.3 fWAR), RHP Dylan Floro (2.06 ERA, 1.0 fWAR), LHP A.J. Puk (4.02 ERA, 0.8 fWAR)
Subtractions: OF Andrew Pintar (No. 17 prospect)
A quieter deadline than last year’s bullpen makeover that resulted in a run to the World Series, but the D-backs aren’t without second-half reinforcements. Jordan Montgomery was just activated from the IL, and Eduardo Rodriguez is expected to make his season debut this month.
New York Mets
Record: 57-51 (+26)
GB: -0.5
Last 10: 7-3
Strength of schedule: .488 (23rd)
Playoff odds: 46.7%
Additions: RHP Paul Blackburn (4.41 ERA, 0.3 fWAR), RHP Huascar Brazoban (2.84 ERA, 0.6 fWAR), RHP Ryne Stanek (4.87 ERA, -0.2 fWAR), OF Jesse Winker (.259/.375/.417, 1.3 fWAR)
Subtractions: RHP Kade Morris (No. 23 prospect), RHP Tyler Stuart (No. 22 prospect)
The Mets showed what’s possible when you string a few wins together. Eleven games below .500 on June 2, they have gone 32-16 since to change their prospects from prospective sellers — presumably listening to offers for pending free agent first baseman Pete Alonso — to upgrading all three facets of their roster with boosts to their rotation (Blackburn), bullpen (Brazoban, Stanek) and lineup (Winker).
St. Louis Cardinals
Record: 56-52 (-35)
GB: -1.5
Last 10: 5-5
Strength of schedule: .518 (5th)
Playoff odds: 26.4%
Additions: RHP Shawn Armstrong (5.40 ERA, 0.4 fWAR), RHP Erik Fedde (3.11 ERA, 2.7 fWAR), OF Tommy Pham (274/.337/.401, 0.4 fWAR)
Subtractions: OF Dylan Carlson (.194/.270/.234, -0.8 fWAR), IF Tommy Edman (60-day IL)
Brandon Crawford has to be happy about owning better chances of playing in the postseason than his former club, and they only improved at the deadline by acquiring one of the top pitchers on the move in Fedde. Clearing the infield depth chart by sending Edman in exchange doesn’t hurt Crawford’s chances at cracking the postseason roster, either.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Record: 55-53 (-5)
GB: -2.5
Last 10: 5-5
Strength of schedule: .512 (6th)
Playoff odds: 14.1%
Additions: LHP Jalen Beeks, OF Bryan De La Cruz, IF/OF Isiah Kiner-Falefa
Subtractions: IF/OF Charles McAdoo (No. 10 prospect), C/IF Garret Forrester (No. 28 prospect), Pérez (to SD), RHP Jun-Seok Shim (No. 24 prospect)
If Pittsburgh makes an improbable playoff push, it will be on the backs of rookie starters Paul Skenes and Jared Jones after shipping out rotation depth to another postseason hopeful.
San Francisco Giants
Record: 54-56 (-18)
GB: -4.5
Last 10: 6-4
Strength of schedule: .497 (21st)
Playoff odds: 11.3%
Additions: IF/OF Mark Canha (.231/.337/.350, 0.7 fWAR), Matzek (from ATL)
Subtractions: RHP Alex Cobb (to CLE), Jackson (to ATL), Soler (to ATL), RHP Eric Silva (No. 21 prospect)
In lieu of external upgrades, the Giants are betting that Marco Luciano can give them better production than Soler as a designated hitter and that Hayden Birdsong can hold down the fifth rotation spot that was initially being kept warm for Cobb.
Cincinnati Reds
Record: 52-56 (+35)
GB: -5.5
Last 10: 5-5
Strength of schedule: .508 (t9th)
Playoff odds: 4.5%
Additions: RHP Jakob Junis (3.29 ERA, 0.0 fWAR, 1B/DH Ty France (.223/.311/.349, -0.5 fWAR)
Subtractions: RHP Frankie Montas (5.01 ERA, 0.8 fWAR), OF Austin Slater (.185/.308/.222, -0.4 fWAR)
Slater wasn’t long for Cincinnati, and the Reds may not be long for the wild card race if the Giants can take care of business this weekend. The longtime Giant should be back in October for the first time since 2021 after being traded to Baltimore.
Chicago Cubs
Record: 52-58 (-7)
GB: -6.5
Last 10: 5-5
Strength of schedule: .485 (t24th)
Playoff odds: 4.6%
Additions: IF Isaac Paredes (.245/.356/.437, 3.0 fWAR), RHP Nate Pearson (5.66 ERA, -0.1 fWAR)
Subtractions: RHP Mark Leiter Jr. (4.23 ERA, 1.3 fWAR), IF Christopher Morel (.200/.302/.386, 0.0 fWAR), OF Yohendrick Pinango (No. 17 prospect)
Jed Hoyer stayed true to his word and focused on building for 2025. That happened to mean acquiring arguably the best player moved at the deadline in Paredes, a different model of balancing buying and selling in a big market with high expectations and long playoff odds.