The Risk of a Regional War in the Middle East

Oil markets now view the Middle East conflict as having escalated to its most dangerous point since October 7th, and Iran’s anticipated response to the killing of the leader of Hamas will now determine whether this is going to be a full-blown regional (or wider) war. Early on Wednesday, Israel assassinated Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh. The fact that Haniyeh was assassinated on Iranian territory cannot go unanswered, putting Tehran in a very difficult position. It has no choice but to respond, and the response will need to be proportional.…