TRACKING THE TROPICS: Tropical storm warning, watches issued for Florida ahead of Potential Tropical Cyclone 4

A tropical depression is "likely to form" near Florida this weekend, National Hurricane Center forecasters said in a Friday morning update.

TAMPA, Fla. (WFLA) -- A tropical depression is expected to form near Florida on Saturday, National Hurricane Center forecasters said in a Friday morning update.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Four will pass over Cuba on Friday before emerging over the Gulf tonight or on Saturday. The disturbance has 30 mph maximum sustained winds.

It has a 70% chance of developing in the next two days and a 90% chance of developing over the next week.

The following watches and warnings are in effect:

Tropical Storm Warning:

• Southwest coast of the Florida peninsula from East Cape Sable to Bonita Beach

Tropical Storm Watch:

• The Florida Keys south of the Card Sound Bridge including the Dry Tortugas
• The southern coast of the Florida peninsula east of East Cape Sable to the Card Sound Bridge
• The west coast of the Florida peninsula north of Bonita Beach to Aripeka, which includes Tampa Bay

"Invest 97L continues to organize and is becoming better defined," Max Defender 8 Meteorologist Amanda Holly said. "As it moves into the southern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Saturday, it is likely to take advantage of the record warm waters off the Tampa Bay coastline and develop into a tropical depression or storm Saturday afternoon or Sunday."

The system is expected to produce up to 4 to 8 inches of rain, with a maximum of 12 inches, across portions of Florida and the southeast U.S. coast over the weekend and through Wednesday morning.

"There is higher confidence that rounds of tropical downpours and gusty winds will impact west central Florida Sunday. Even with higher confidence, there is still some disagreement with how organized the system will get, how close it will be to the Tampa Bay coastline and how long it will linger in the Gulf before moving north," Holly said. "This will affect how much rain we end up seeing and how strong the wind gusts are. As of Friday's forecast, 3 to 6 inches of rain is possible over the next 4 to 5 days and it will be breezy Saturday afternoon with higher wind gusts up to 40 mph on Sunday. 

Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to check out the system on Friday.