Walters: Newsom brags about California economy, but jobs data tells a different story

Gov. Gavin Newsom tirelessly touts the size and strength of California’s economy, often contrasting it with those of other states.

When, for example, the monthly employment report was issued in June, Newsom bragged on X, formerly Twitter, that “California continues to lead the nation’s economy & create good jobs throughout the state. Just this year, the state created over 107,000 jobs — more than doubling … the same time period last year.”

Actually the report, based on May data, was not that positive.

While the state’s 5.2% unemployment rate was slightly lower than April’s rate, it was still the highest of any state. In June it was still unchanged and remains the nation’s highest, albeit tied with Nevada. It also was markedly higher than the jobless rates in Florida (3.3%) and Texas (4%), two red states that Newsom often disparages.

The recent reports on California’s job picture are nothing new. California has consistently had unemployment rates at or near the nation’s highest ever since the COVID-19 pandemic faded away.

About 3 million Californians lost their jobs during the pandemic, thanks largely to Newsom’s orders to shut down businesses. The state’s recovery has been sluggish vis-a-vis those of other states. There are still more than a million California workers without jobs.

California’s mediocre economic recovery has had many effects, one being an immense budget deficit. The Newsom administration’s 2022 projection of a fast recovery and a cornucopia of state revenues turned out to be wildly inaccurate, leading to a wide gap between income and outgo.

Another impact is the truly sorry condition of the unemployment insurance fund, which provides support payments to jobless workers.

When the pandemic hit and unemployment soared, the unemployment insurance fund quickly exhausted its slender reserves and the state borrowed some $20 billion from the federal government to maintain payments.

Not only has California not repaid the loans, but it is one of only two states that have failed to do so (New York still owes about $6 billion). And the unemployment insurance fund’s deficit is growing because the state is still not taking in enough money from payroll taxes to cover its current payments.

Thanks to California’s stubbornly high unemployment rate, the Employment Development Department expects the unemployment insurance fund to receive $4.8 billion in payroll taxes this year but to pay out $6.8 billion in benefits, meaning the fund’s deficit, including federal loans, will reach $21.7 billion by the end of this year and $22 billion in 2025.

The underlying problem predates Newsom’s governorship. Nearly a quarter-century ago, the Legislature and then-Gov. Gray Davis enacted a 50% increase in unemployment insurance benefits, counting on what was then a healthy fund reserve to finance them.

However, when recession struck shortly thereafter, the fund was drained to pay benefits and had only barely regained solvency when the Great Recession hammered the state a half-decade later. The state borrowed about $10 billion to keep benefits flowing, and the feds increased payroll taxes on California employers to repay the debt.

The pandemic hit just after that loan was repaid, and employers are again being taxed to repay the even larger debt incurred. However, it’s not enough to prevent the fund’s deficit from increasing.

The effects of relatively high unemployment are compounded by a decades-long political stalemate over how to make the unemployment insurance fund healthy again, pitting employers against unions over whether payroll taxes should be increased or benefits should be curtailed.

Newsom’s bragging about California’s economy in the face of such negative data not only undermines his credibility but ill-serves the state. The ever-growing unemployment insurance fund deficit is a crisis that should demand political attention, not be ignored.

Dan Walters is a CalMatters columnist.