Is China Getting Ready to Invade Taiwan?

Summary and Key Points: China's Joint Sword-2024A military exercise, accompanied by a simulated amphibious attack on Taiwan, has reignited fears of rising cross-strait tensions. Released by the Eastern Theatre Command, the video is part of China's ongoing information warfare aimed at intimidating Taiwan and discouraging international support.

-This latest simulation targets Hualien, a strategic location in Taiwan, raising concerns about the potential for real conflict.

-Despite China’s increasing military posturing, Taiwanese society remains resilient, although there are risks of desensitization.

-The U.S. continues to support Taiwan through arms sales and regional military presence, emphasizing the importance of a free and open Indo-Pacific.

China's Joint Sword-2024A: Simulated Taiwan Attack Escalates Cross-Strait Tensions

On May 23-24, 2024, the Chinese military conducted a large-scale military exercise codenamed Joint Sword-2024A. Following the exercise, the Chinese military’s Eastern Theatre Command released a simulated video of an amphibious attack on Taiwan. Joint Sword-2024A and the simulated attack video have reignited discussions about rising cross-strait tensions.

The Eastern Theatre Command has previously released such simulations as part of an information warfare campaign orchestrated by Chinese authorities to promote military intimidation. In April 2023, during then-Taiwanese president Tsai Ing-wen’s visit to the United States, a similar video was released.

The objectives of the simulation videos are multifaceted. Domestically, they are intended to appeal to Chinese nationalists and demonstrate the government’s firm stance on national unity. Towards Taiwan, they aim to retaliate against the Taiwanese government, sow societal divides, and intimidate the populace against supporting Taiwan’s independence. Internationally, these videos seek to exacerbate cross-strait tensions and warn other countries against close engagement with Taiwan, lest they provoke Chinese military action.

A notable feature of the recent video is the labeling of Hualien as a target of the simulated attack. Hualien, a county in eastern Taiwan, has traditionally been a challenging target for the Chinese military due to the natural barrier posed by the Central Mountain Range. Taiwan’s military has a longstanding strategy of relocating its air force to Hualien’s Chiashan Air Force Base and Taitung County’s Chihhang Air Base to preserve its combat capabilities for a counterattack should China launch an initial strike.

Persistent military threats, whether through stimulations, official statements, or military exercises, have become a recurring tactic in recent years. China deliberately heightens tensions across the Taiwan Strait and uses military actions in response to international gestures of goodwill towards Taiwan. The Chinese military’s reactions to the visits of US officials, including Nancy Pelosi in August 2022, reflect China’s strategy.

China’s military expansion is justified with the excuse that it is in retaliation for exchanges between Taiwan and the United States. These actions are not mere retaliation, but part of a broader strategic plan. Since publishing the 2019 white paper, China’s National Defense in the New Era, China has emphasized the need to organize patrols in the East China Sea and project power into the western Pacific Ocean. The Chinese Air Force has also shifted from territorial defense to a strategy encompassing both offense and defense.

China’s military intimidation has caused internal divisions within Taiwan. Government officials and major political parties have condemned China’s actions, viewing them as unnecessary provocations that destabilize the region. While the legislative opposition to President Lai Ching-te also criticizes China’s actions, it frequently accuses the ruling Democratic Progressive Party of exacerbating tensions through its policies. The debate between war and peace was one of the main contentious issues in Taiwan’s 2024 presidential election. China has attributed responsibility for cross-strait military tensions to the Taiwanese government in an attempt to deflect blame for increased Chinese military activities.

Despite the socio-political impacts of military intimidation, the Taiwanese populace has grown accustomed to China’s military activities, causing minimal disruption to the daily lives of ordinary citizens. Indeed, Western media has paid more attention to Chinese military developments than the Taiwanese public. This disparity underscores a significant perception gap between the Taiwanese populace and foreign observers regarding the threat posed by the Chinese military.

The United States has taken measures to counter the Chinese military threat, including US President Joe Biden’s repeated support for Taiwan, fifteen arms sales during his administration, and increased military exchanges and cooperation. The backing of the US Congress further aids Taiwan in bolstering its defensive capabilities.

The United States has increased its regional presence by establishing four bases in the northern Philippines to counter China’s assertiveness. Joint military exercises, including the 2024 Rim of the Pacific exercises, serve to reinforce the message to China about maintaining a free and open Indo-Pacific region. Many countries have also begun to stress the importance of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, inferring opposition to the Chinese military’s activities and intimidation tactics.

The effectiveness of China’s military intimidation diminishes as it increases in frequency, allowing Taiwanese society to maintain a semblance of normalcy. But this desensitization also presents certain risks. Taiwanese society may grow indifferent to the Chinese military’s activities around the Taiwan Strait, potentially facilitating a surprise attack.

Ultimately, the success of China’s military intimidation strategy against Taiwan hinges on its concrete actions and strategic decisions. China has leveraged the February 2024 incident of a Chinese fishing boat capsizing near Taiwan’s Kinmen Island to bolster its China Coast Guard’s enforcement activities around Taiwan, asserting its sovereignty and jurisdiction. This has opened up a new battleground and heralded another phase of China’s information warfare campaign.

Tzu-Chieh Hung is Associate Research Fellow at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research, Taipei.

This article was first published by the East Asia Forum.