Japan's latest strategy review names the growing threats it faces

The Japanese government's white paper identifies the threats it faces and reiterates the need for heightened defense spending.

• A new Japanese government report may be readying its public for the possibility of war.
• It expands on the threats it faces from Russia, China and North Korea.
• Japan's military needs more troops and pledged to boost pay and working conditions.

Japan's newest strategic review names China, North Korea and Russia as threats to Japanese security.

That's hardly a revelation. But it is a change from previous years when the Japanese government was more circumspect about publicly identifying potential enemies. In fact, the theme of the 2024 "Defense of Japan" report may be to prepare the Japanese public for more defense spending and the possibility of war.

"The biggest change is in the description of the regional security environment," Nicholas Szechenyi, a Japan expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told Business Insider. "Instead of vague references to 'changes to the status quo by force,' the white paper now refers more explicitly to Chinese coercion and the North Korea threat. Clearer explanations of the threats to Japan's national security will prove critical as the government seeks public support for an ambitious defense spending plan."

The review is part of a reconsideration of Japan's needs in the face of growing threats from its well-armed neighbors, especially China. Japan reserves its military only for self-defense and has avoided entering any armed conflict since its defeat in World War II.

The 2024 paper —of which only a summary has been released — includes more details about the Chinese threat to Japan, including joint Chinese-Russian exercises. China has "conducted joint bomber flights and naval navigations with Russia in the vicinity of Japan," the paper said. "These repeated joint activities are clearly intended for demonstration of force against Japan and are a grave concern from the perspective of the national security of Japan."

The Ministry of Defense also challenged the legality of Chinese operations in the South China Sea, which China claims as its own territorial waters despite an international court judgment to the contrary. "China has intensified its activities in the South China Sea based on assertions, which are conflicting with existing orders of the seas, and promoting the establishment of military bases," the official paper said. "Such actions to further promote unilateral change of the status quo by force and turning it into a fait accompli are serious concerns to Japan."

The paper also highlighted North Korea's nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities, including ICBMs, nuclear-armed cruise missiles, and hypersonic weapons. "North Korea is focusing on qualitatively improving its nuclear and missile capabilities, such as diversifying its equipment systems and acquiring intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) means that complement its nuclear and missile operational capabilities," the paper said.

The 2024 paper reiterated the Japanese government's commitment to the 2022 Defense Buildup Plan, a five-year effort that includes development of stand-off anti-ship missiles to repel a Chinese amphibious assault on the disputed islands and mainland Japan. The 43 trillion yen (US$287 billion) plan also calls for development of hypersonic missiles, as well as drones such as robotic amphibious landing vehicles.

Besides external threats and new equipment, the paper highlighted a critical need for the Japan Self-Defense Forces: more people. While militaries in many developed nations are struggling to recruit personnel, this is particularly acute in Japan, where sharply declining birth rates and barriers to immigration have resulted in a population where almost 30%is over age 65. Nor is military service seen as attractive in an economy with an unemployment rate of just 2.5%.

While the paper promised the JSDF would improve pay and working conditions, experts are not convinced this will solve the problem.

"There are other things that the MOD needs to do, such as expanding the reserve force component which can be done by adjusting the recruitment regime and also better integrating them with the active component," Ryo Hinata-Yamaguchi, an adjunct senior fellow at the Honolulu-based Pacific Forum think tank, told Business Insider. "The problem is that such changes will require adjustments in laws and also various arrangements with the civilian sector."

Michael Peck is a defense writer whose work has appeared in Forbes, Defense News, Foreign Policy magazine, and other publications. He holds an MA in political science from Rutgers Univ. Follow him on Twitter and LinkedIn.