Increase in tropical development possible

A look at past August hurricanes

AUSTIN (KXAN) -- The Atlantic Basin had been quiet for the past several weeks until the latest system formed Friday. The fourth tropical storm is in the eastern Gulf of Mexico named Debby.

While the hurricane season does start on June 1st, it is the middle of August to the middle of October when things really get cooking in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico. The peak of the season is September 10.

In looking back over the past five years we found an average of 5.5 tropical weather systems that formed in August. Some did become hurricanes (when winds reach 74 mph) while others got no stronger than tropical storm-strength. That 5.5 is a four-year average (2019, 2020, 2021, and 2023) because in 2022 there were no tropical weather systems.

Seven systems that formed in 2023 were named Emily, Franklin, Gert, Harold, Idalia, Jose, and Katia. Of the seven, only Franklin and Idalia would become hurricanes, both achieving Category 4 status. Hurricane Franklin was a bit unusual as it made landfall as a tropical storm near Barahona, Dominican Republic on August 23rd before reaching Category 4 strength five days later when winds reached 150 mph in the open waters of the southwest Atlantic Ocean.

Hurricane Idalia was the only hurricane to make landfall last year in the United States. Winds would ultimately reach 134 mph (Category 4). It made landfall near Keaton Beach (in the Florida Big Bend) on August 30 as a Cat 3 storm. Total damage was estimated at $3.5 billion. The storm claimed ten lives.

As aforementioned, there were no tropical weather systems in 2022. We were in a La Niña, which tends to increase the number of hurricanes that develop. Since the satellite era began in 1960, there have been only three years -- 1961, 1997 and 2022 -- that there were no named systems during August.

Seven named storms were born in August 2021. Their names were Fred, Grace, Henri, Ida, Julian, Kate, and Larry. Ida was the strongest of the six, reaching Category 4 strength. Ida made landfall as a Cat 4 in Lower Lafourche Parish (Louisiana) on the morning of August 29th with winds of 150 mph.

Hurricane Grace was a Category 3 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph. This hurricane made landfall at Veracruz, Mexico on August 21. Larry was also a hurricane but did not make landfall until September,

Five named storms were part of a busy 2020 season. Their names? Josephine, Kyle, Laura, Marco and Omar (born 8/31/2020). Laura was a Category 4 hurricane with 150 mph winds when it made landfall after midnight on August 27 at Cameron Louisiana. It was southwest Louisiana's first Cat 4 landfalling hurricane on record.

That was also the year when 30 of 31 weather systems became named storms. Nine of the storms got names according to the Greek alphabet and three of them, Delta, Eta, and Iota, reached Category 4 strength.

In August 2019, three named storms happened. They were Chantal, Dorian and Erin. Two of the three remained tropical storms. Dorian, however, was different. Dorian formed in late August. Winds would eventually reach Cat 5 strength at 185 mph on September 1 when it made landfall in Elbow Cay, Bahamas. The storm would cause over $5 billion in damage.

There have been other notable hurricanes in August. One of the first that comes to mind is Hurricane Katrina.

This hurricane's winds reached Category 5 strength with winds of 174 mph on August 28th. The storm weakened to a Category 3 when it made the first of two landfalls the next day. The first landfall was near Buras in SE Louisiana, and the second was at the mouth of the Pearl River at the border of Louisiana and Mississippi. Nearly 1,400 people died from Katrina. Damage was estimated at $186.3 billion.

Another one hit very close to Central Texas. Hurricane Harvey in August 2017 had rapid intensification, going from a tropical depression to a Category 4 hurricane in 48 hours. Harvey would make three landfalls, the first over San Jose Island and the second near Rockport. After moving several miles inland it would take a turn and head back over the Gulf before making a final landfall near Cameron, LA.

Hurricane Harvey would claim 107 lives, spawn 53 tornadoes over six states, and cause damages of up to $155 billion. It is estimated that Harvey was responsible for more than 27 trillion gallons of rain, making it the wettest Atlantic hurricane ever measured. Some parts of Houston received between 50 and 60 inches of rain.

Rain was also heavy in parts of Bastrop (Rosanky to Smithville) and Fayette Counties with rainfall totals ranging from 20 to 30" in 72 hours. A rain gauge 9 miles east of Smithville (western Fayette Co. measured 29.09" while a gauge 2 miles northeast of Muldoon (Fayette Co.) received 26.63". Several rain gauges in the La Grange measured more than 25".

We're fast approaching the busy season in August. Time will tell what the rest of the month will be like when it comes to tropical storms and hurricanes.