Australia raises official terror threat level to 'probable'

SYDNEY — Australia has raised its official terror alert level to "probable" amid community tensions over the war in Gaza, with the nation's intelligence services believing that the domestic and global security environments have become more volatile

Security authorities in Canberra believe the chances of a violent extremist act are now more likely than when authorities lowered the alert level to "possible" in November 2022.

Mike Burgess, the head of ASIO, the Australian Security Intelligence Organization, the domestic spy agency, told reporters Monday in Canberra that “more Australians are being radicalized and being radicalized more quickly.”  

The ASIO boss said that the security agencies in Australia had disrupted eight incidents in the last four months that involved alleged terrorism or were investigated as potential acts of extremism.  

Burgess added that the conflict in Gaza was not the “cause” for raising the terror level, but it was a “significant driver.”

Community groups in Australia have reported an increase in Islamophobic and antisemitic abuse since Israel’s war in Gaza began last October.    

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese Monday reassured Australians that ‘probable’ does not mean inevitable, and it does not mean there is intelligence about an imminent threat.

However, Albanese told reporters Monday that his government must remain vigilant.

“We have seen a global rise in politically motivated violence and extremism," he said. "Many democracies are working to address this, including our friends in the United States and in the United Kingdom.  There are many things driving this global trend towards violence.  Governments around the world are concerned about youth radicalization, online radicalization and the rise of new mixed ideologies.”

Australia has five official levels under its national terrorism threat classification system, ranging from “certain” to “not expected.” 

Monday’s change moves the rating to the mid-level of “probable.” 

This means that security officials in Australia believe “there is a greater than 50% chance of an onshore attack or attack planning in the next 12 months.”