Recession Vibes: Stock Markets Plummet as Harris Gains in Polls

Stock markets in the United States and around the world suffered steep declines on Monday amid reports that Vice President Kamala Harris is now a slight favorite to win the 2024 election against Donald Trump.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 indexes posted losses of several percentage points after markets opened Monday morning, while Japan's Nikkei index plunged more than 12 percent in its worst day since 1987. The VIX volatility index, sometimes referred to as Wall Street's "fear gauge," surged to its highest level since the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.

The alarming losses were fueled in part by public assessments from Nate Silver and other forecasting gurus who argued that Harris's recent polling gains made her slightly favored to win in November. "After another day of strong polling, Kamala Harris has pulled ahead of Donald Trump for the first time since the forecast launched," Silver wrote over the weekend. "Although the race is still a toss-up, Harris leads Trump by 1.4 points in our national polling average, and has a 51 percent chance of winning the electoral college."

The prospect of a Harris presidency has led to understandable levels of panic and uncertainty among investors. Since replacing President Joe Biden atop the Democratic ticket last month, Harris has been unwilling or unable to articulate a single policy position other than to disavow, via anonymous aides, the radical left-wing policies she supported as a failed primary candidate in 2020.

Investors were presumably horrified as well by Harris's inability to answer an easy question about her feelings in the wake of last week's prisoner swap with Russia that secured the release of Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich. "This is just an extraordinary testament to the importance of having a president who understands the power of diplomacy and understands the strength that rests in understanding the significance of diplomacy," Harris told reporters.

As far as anyone can decipher Harris's positions on economic issues, she appears determined to continue Biden's failed policies that led to record inflation levels. Biden announced in a press release on Monday that Gene Sperling, the senior White House adviser responsible for implementing his unpopular economic agenda, was joining the Harris campaign. The market sell-off may also be a reflection of the uncertainty surrounding Biden's fitness to serve out the remainder of his term. Recent reports have indicated Biden is not necessarily in control of the country, at least as far as foreign policy is concerned.

The question of whether or not Biden, 81, is actually in charge of the U.S. government would induce considerable anxiety even under relatively peaceful conditions. Alas, the administration's failed approach to the conflict in the Middle East has brought the oil-rich region to the brink of war on multiple fronts. Observers have also expressed concern as to whether a Harris administration would continue to support Israel's right to exist, or would instead favor a conciliatory approach to the Jewish state's terrorist enemies.

This is a developing story.

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