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Emmys: 4 reasons why Tom Hollander will beat the odds and win for ‘Feud: Capote vs. The Swans’

As of this writing, Gold Derby’s 10 Experts can’t decide who will win Best Movie/Limited Actor at the 2024 Emmys. A leading six of these pundits predict Richard Gadd (“Baby Reindeer”) will prevail on September 15, while the other four are going with Andrew Scott (“Ripley”). But I think they’re all wrong. Tom Hollander (“Feud: Capote vs. The Swans”) is my pick to win for portraying American novelist Truman Capote in FX’s limited series. Even though the British actor is a bit of an underdog at the Emmys, don’t count him out just yet. Read on to see my four reasons why Hollander will beat the odds.

1. It’s a masterful physical transformation.
There’s nothing awards voters love more than when actors transform themselves on camera, and Hollander undergoes the wildest physical change of the year. “Feud’s” costumes, hair and makeup were all nominated at the Creative Arts Emmys, proving that voters approved of Hollander’s overall appearance (plus the looks of the various Swans). Also don’t forget the way he mimics Capote’s body language and emulates his high-pitched, nasally voice. In this category alone, men like Ewan McGregor (“Halston”), Michael Douglas (“Behind the Candelabra”), Kevin Costner (“Hatfields & McCoys”) and Paul Giamatti (“John Adams”) have all triumphed for fully committing to their transformative roles. Will Hollander be next?

2. He portrays a real person.
The Best Movie/Limited Actor winners list is chock-full of performers who prevailed for taking on real-life figures. In addition to those mentioned above, other recent champs who fit the criteria include Jharrel Jerome (“When They See Us”), Darren Criss (“The Assassination of Gianni Versace”), Courtney B. Vance (“The People v. O.J. Simpson”) and Barry Pepper (“The Kennedys”). In this year’s Emmy race, Hollander is the only actor nominated for portraying a real person, which could give him an edge. Richard Gadd plays a version of himself named Donny Dunn in “Baby Reindeer,” while the other three nominees inhabit completely fictional characters: Matt Bomer as Hawkins “Hawk” Fuller in “Fellow Travelers,” Jon Hamm as Sheriff Roy Tillman in “Fargo” and Andrew Scott as Tom Ripley in “Ripley.”

3. The Ryan Murphy factor.
Over the years, the uber-producer has helped no less than 12 actors win Emmys. Everybody from Billy Porter (“Pose”) to Sarah Paulson (“The People v. O.J. Simpson”) to Gwyneth Paltrow (“Glee”) have Murphy to thank for their fireplace mantels being a bit fuller, and now Hollander is hoping his name gets called this year. Murphy’s secret sauce seems to be a combination of real-life drama, over-the-top camp and gut-wrenching empathy, three things Emmy voters simply can’t ignore. Besides Hollander, three other actors from “Feud: Capote vs. The Swans” were nominated this year: Naomi Watts as Babe Paley, Treat Williams as Bill Paley and Diane Lane as Nancy “Slim” Keith. See the cast compared to the real-life people.

4. He’s an acclaimed actor of stage and screen.
Even as TV and film continue to meld together year after year, there’s still no denying the impact of having a movie star take the Emmy stage. Hollander has appeared in dozens of popular films through the years, including “Gosford Park” (2001), “Pride & Prejudice” (2005), “In the Loop” (2009) and “Bohemian Rhapsody” (2018). He also has a Tony Award nomination to his name for the play “Travesties” (2018). As for the Emmys, Hollander has a bit of an “overdue” factor about him because of his snub last year for “The White Lotus.” Could all of these factors materialize into a Hollander victory for “Feud: Capote vs. The Swans”? Stay tuned.

PREDICT the 2024 Emmy winners through September 15

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