2024 Emmy Predictions: Best Drama Guest Actor
For the first time since 2006, every current Best Drama Guest Actor Emmy nominee is new to the category. The seemingly unflappable leader of the pack is general first-timer Néstor Carbonell of “Shōgun,” whose expected victory could be one of 22 for the freshman series, the 1980 limited version of which took three out of a possible 12 TV academy prizes.
Carbonell’s strongest competitor is John Turturro (“Mr. & Mrs. Smith”), who has an advantage in this race in that he won the corresponding comedy award for “Monk” two decades ago. Also in the running are former limited series supporting nominees Paul Dano (“Mr. & Mrs. Smith”) and Jonathan Pryce (“Slow Horses”) as well as Emmys newcomer Tracy Letts, whose “Winning Time” bid came as a surprise to most predictors.
In order to determine whether Carbonell truly has this contest sewn up, let’s take a closer look at each nominee. Be sure to make your predictions in this and 30 other Creative Arts Emmy categories by September 7.
Néstor Carbonell as Vasco Rodrigues (“Shōgun”)
Episode: “Anjin”
Carbonell’s first Emmy notice comes 35 years into his eclectic TV career. The actor best known for “Lost,” “Bates Motel,” and “The Morning Show” appears in three “Shōgun” episodes as a 16th century Spanish sailor who was played four decades ago by supporting nominee John Rhys-Davies. In the premiere installment, his Rodrigues takes responsibility for the transport of captured English pilot John Blackthorne (Cosmo Jarvis) and opens his eyes to the realities of his seemingly dire new existence in Japan.
Paul Dano as Harris Materbach (“Mr. & Mrs. Smith”)
Episode: “The Breakup”
In his third and final appearance in this spy thriller’s first season, Dano’s “hot neighbor” character is suspected of tailing the titular leads for sinister purposes before revealing the true, mostly harmless reason for his nosiness. This is the actor’s second Emmys outing following his 2019 bid for the miniseries “Escape at Dannemora.”
Tracy Letts as Jack McKinney (“Winning Time: The Rise of the Lakers Dynasty”)
Episode: “The New World”
After stepping down as an initial series regular, Letts appeared in just one episode of this fact-based basketball drama’s second and final season. Just before their teams face off in the fall of 1980, newly minted Indiana Pacers coach McKinney meets with his Los Angeles Lakers successor Paul Westhead (Jason Segel) to psych him out by vaguely threatening to expose his shortcomings.
Jonathan Pryce as David Cartwright (“Slow Horses”)
Episode: “Footprints”
This year, Pryce went from having two to four career Emmy nominations thanks to his regular work on “The Crown” and smaller contribution to this British espionage program. Having now shown up in two episodes of each of the three “Slow Horses” seasons, he is recognized for his role in the latest installment which involves MI5 agent River Cartwright (Jack Lowden) revealing his possession of a dangerous file to his wise grandfather.
John Turturro as Eric Shane (“Mr. & Mrs. Smith”)
Episode: “Second Date”
Turturro has now been nominated for four Emmys in as many categories, with his middle two bids having come for his respective lead and supporting performances on “The Night Of” (2017) and “Severance” (2022). In the second episode of “Mr. & Mrs. Smith,” his character encounters the titular duo as they seek information from an unknown silent auction attendee. Although the novice spies successfully discern that Shane is their target, their attempt to interrogate him turns disastrous.
So, who will win the 2024 Emmy for Best Drama Guest Actor? Based purely on the fact that “Shōgun” is this year’s most-nominated program, it’s reasonable to believe this award will be one of many included in its final haul. Carbonell also stands out in that he arguably portrays this lineup’s most dynamic character, conveying a wide range of compelling traits over the course of 20 minutes.
On the other hand, Carbonell may be hurt by his show’s position as the Best Drama Series frontrunner, as that award and this specific acting one have not gone to the same program since 1999 (“The Practice”; Edward Herrmann). Assuming “Shōgun” is more likely to take the program honor, there is a high chance of a drama guest actor surprise.
PREDICT the Creative Arts Emmy winners through September 7
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