Gold Derby Oscar predictions 2025: Timothee Chalamet (‘A Complete Unknown’) enters Best Actor Top 5 [Updated August 6]
If the 2025 Oscars nominations were announced today, what would Gold Derby predict would be the nominees and winners? Our predictions center officially opened on July 1, 2024 and already more than 2,400 people have made their nominations forecasts in the eight top categories for picture, directing, acting and writing. So who’s out front to claim these golden trophies, according to the initial Gold Derby Oscar predictions 2025?
Below, see a snapshot in time of our Oscar racetrack odds, updated on August 6. (See how the odds and rankings have changed over time by examining our previous snapshots on July 3, July 9, July 16, July 23 and July 29.) Now expected to receive a nomination since the last update: Timothee Chalamet in Best Actor for James Mangold‘s biographical film “A Complete Unknown.” Chalamet takes on the role of legendary music artist Bob Dylan, and is seeking his second career Oscar bid after “Call Me by Your Name” (2017).
Gold Derby’s Academy Awards odds are based on the combined forecasts of Experts we’ve polled from major media outlets, Editors who cover awards year-round for this website, Top 24 Users who did the best predicting the winners last time, All-Star Users who had the best prediction scores over the last two years, and the mass of Users who make up our biggest predictions bloc. We will be updating the predictions center weekly by adding, deleting and changing contenders whenever new information is provided to us by the studios/campaigners.
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BEST PICTURE
Predicted Nominees
1. “Sing Sing” — 15/2
2. “Dune: Part Two” — 8/1
3. “Blitz” — 9/1
4. “Conclave” — 9/1
5. “Anora” — 9/1
6. “Emilia Perez” — 12/1
7. “Joker: Folie à Deux” — 14/1
8. “Nickel Boys” — 16/1
9. “Gladiator II” — 18/1
10. “A Real Pain” — 35/1
Predicted Spoilers
“The Piano Lesson,” “A Complete Unknown,” “Wicked,” “The Room Next Door,” “The Seed of the Sacred Fig”
See more Best Picture contenders …
BEST DIRECTOR
Predicted Nominees
1. Steve McQueen (“Blitz”) — 9/2
2. Sean Baker (“Anora”) — 5/1
3. Denis Villeneuve (“Dune: Part Two”) — 11/2
4. Edward Berger (“Conclave”) — 15/2
5. Greg Kwedar (“Sing Sing”) — 23/2
Predicted Spoilers
Jacques Audiard (“Emilia Perez”), Ridley Scott (“Gladiator II”), Mohammad Rasoulof (“The Seed of the Sacred Fig”), Pedro Almodovar (“The Room Next Door”), Todd Phillips (“Joker: Folie à Deux”)
See more Best Director contenders …
BEST ACTRESS
Predicted Nominees
1. Amy Adams (“Nightbitch”) — 9/2
2. Mikey Madison (“Anora”) — 11/2
3. Karla Sofia Gascon (“Emilia Perez”) — 6/1
4. Saoirse Ronan (“Blitz”) — 7/1
5. Lady Gaga (“Joker: Folie à Deux”) — 7/1
Predicted Spoilers
Marianne Jean-Baptiste (“Hard Truths”), Julianne Moore (“The Room Next Door”), June Squibb (“Thelma”), Saoirse Ronan (“The Outrun”), Cynthia Erivo (“Wicked”)
See more Best Actress contenders …
BEST ACTOR
Predicted Nominees
1. Colman Domingo (“Sing Sing”) — 69/20
2. Ralph Fiennes (“Conclave”) — 4/1
3. Joaquin Phoenix (“Joker: Folie à Deux”) — 11/2
4. John David Washington (“The Piano Lesson”) — 9/1
5. Timothee Chalamet (“A Complete Unknown”) — 19/2
Predicted Spoilers
Paul Mescal (“Gladiator II”), Sebastian Stan (“A Different Man”), Jesse Eisenberg (“A Real Pain”), Ethan Herisse (“Nickel Boys”), Tom Hanks (“Here”)
See more Best Actor contenders …
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Predicted Nominees
1. Danielle Deadwyler (“The Piano Lesson”) — 4/1
2. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (“Nickel Boys”) — 9/2
3. Isabella Rossellini (“Conclave”) — 5/1
4. Zoe Saldana (“Emilia Perez”) — 11/2
5. Toni Collette (“Juror #2”) — 16/1
Predicted Spoilers
Tilda Swinton (“The Room Next Door”), Selena Gomez (“Emilia Perez”), Carrie Coon (“His Three Daughters”), Joan Chen (“Didi”), Natasha Lyonne (“His Three Daughters”)
See more Best Supporting Actress contenders …
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Predicted Nominees
1. Samuel L. Jackson (“The Piano Lesson”) — 19/5
2. Clarence Maclin (“Sing Sing”) — 9/2
3. Kieran Culkin (“A Real Pain”) — 5/1
4. Stanley Tucci (“Conclave”) — 13/2
5. Denzel Washington (“Gladiator II”) — 15/2
Predicted Spoilers
John Lithgow (“Conclave”), Harris Dickinson (“Blitz”), Paul Raci (“Sing Sing”), Edward Norton (“A Complete Unknown”), Mark Eydelshteyn (“Anora”)
See more Best Supporting Actor contenders …
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Predicted Nominees
1. “Sing Sing” — 71/20
2. “Conclave” — 9/2
3. “Nickel Boys” — 11/2
4. “Dune: Part Two” — 8/1
5. “Nightbitch” — 8/1
Predicted Spoilers
“The Piano Lesson,” “Hit Man,” “Joker: Folie à Deux,” “Gladiator II,” “A Complete Unknown”
See more Best Adapted Screenplay contenders …
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Predicted Nominees
1. “Anora” — 18/5
2. “Blitz” — 9/2
3. “A Real Pain” — 6/1
4. “Emilia Perez” — 15/2
5. “Hard Truths” — 10/1
Predicted Spoilers
“The Room Next Door,” “The Seed of the Sacred Fig,” “The Substance,” “Challengers,” “Saturday Night”
See more Best Original Screenplay contenders …
PREDICT the 2025 Oscar nominees through January 17
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