Fantasy Focus: Cole Caufield

After inking a big contract last summer, expectations were even higher for Cole Caufield heading into last season and he responded with a career year.  Can he set new personal bests once again next season?

2023-24

After undergoing shoulder surgery late in the 2022-23 campaign, there was some intrigue heading into last season.  Knowing that it can sometimes take a full year for a shooter to rediscover their tough following a procedure like that, it’s fair to say that no one really knew what to expect from Caufield early on.

While he didn’t play poorly early on, his goal production was certainly down over the first half of the season.  He had just six goals in the first quarter of the season and followed that up with only five in the second quarter.  While his 28 points through the first 41 games were respectable, it certainly felt as if he was underachieving, particularly in the goal department.

That started to change in the second half.  Caufield got off to a five-game goal streak to start the third quarter as Montreal’s top line started to take off with Juraj Slafkovsky finding his footing on there.  Obviously, the goal-per-game rate wasn’t maintained and the end of that stretch corresponded with his longest goalless stretch of the season (12 games) but he did finish up that quarter at the point-per-game mark.

Caufield finished up well, ending that goal drought en route to notching nine goals in the final quarter of the season, thanks to eight tallies in the final nine games.  Does that mean his touch had come back?  Probably not; scorers are often streaky after all.  But after missing so much of the previous season with an injury, playing the full season and finishing strong is a definite improvement, providing some optimism heading into the upcoming year.

Stats: 82 GP, 28-37-65, -4, 16 PIMS, 9 PPG, 7 GWG, 314 shots, 19:25 ATOI

3 Year Averages

(Since Caufield played just ten games late in 2020-21, it’s not really relevant for full-season averages.)

GP: 65
Goals: 26
Assists: 22
Points: 48
+/-: -13
PIMS: 9
PPG: 7
GWG: 4
Shots: 220

2024-25 Role

For the first couple of years, Caufield was joined at the hip with Nick Suzuki on the top line with a rotating cast of other players getting an opportunity to ride shotgun.  That rotation ended in the second half of last season when Slafkovsky moved up there.  Given the success they had, it’s reasonable to think that trio will get every opportunity to stay together.  If they don’t, it’s probably Slafkovsky who moves down with someone else elevating to the top line.

From a special teams perspective, there isn’t much in question here either.  Caufield has been one of the focal points on the power play in recent years and there’s little reason to think he’ll come off that top unit.  If for some reason he did (they want to spread things out, for example), he’d be the key trigger piece on that second unit.  Either way, he’ll have ample playing time and plenty of shooting opportunities with the man advantage.  As for the penalty kill, well, that’s not happening.

Projected Stats

With the Habs essentially bringing back the same group, there isn’t necessarily much room for enthusiasm for players to take a big jump offensively.  That can be said about Caufield but I think there’s a good case to be made that he can set a new benchmark or two this coming season.

Heading into last season, Caufield’s career shooting percentage was 14.1%, perhaps a bit on the high side for somewhat of a volume shooter but he is a high-end shooter so it should sit a few points higher than league average.  Last season, he checked in at 8.9%, numbers that were below the league and team average of 10.2%.  Now fully recovered from his shoulder surgery, it’s fair to project that Caufield’s shooting percentage should head more toward that 14% mark.

Having said that, I expect there’s going to be a drop in shot volume as well.  If Slafkovsky stays on that line, he’s going to get an uptick in shooting opportunities (relative to last season’s numbers) and that probably cuts into Caufield’s share somewhat.  On the flip side, if that line is able to maintain its play from last season, the surprising uptick in Caufield’s assist total might largely be sustainable.  So while the 40-goal mark might still be iffy, he should be able to best his point total from a year ago, presuming he stays healthy.

From a fantasy perspective, he’s still worth a bump in rankings for leagues that weigh goals heavier than points even if the goal-to-assist ratio is largely evened out.  Some early rankings have Caufield inside the top 75 overall which might be a bit on the high side but he’s safely inside the top 100.  He probably isn’t a top-two winger in most smaller leagues but he could be in some deeper pools.  There’s a bit of risk with the injury history in the first two seasons but there’s a lot of upside for someone who technically has yet to hit the 30-goal mark in the NHL.

GP: 76
Goals: 34
Assists: 35
Points: 69
+/-: -7
PIMS: 14
PPG: 10
GWG: 6
Shots: 254