Over/Under for the Pittsburgh Penguins new guys in 2024-25

Let’s talk about some realistic expectations for the new guys next season.

It is August 8 and there is not much new to talk about regarding the Pittsburgh Penguins, especially after Sidney Crosby’s birthday came and went without a new contract extension for the captain.

Until that new extension happens — or until training camp happens or another roster move is made — there probably won’t be much else happening over the next couple of weeks.

So let’s start looking ahead to the season and do our first round of over/under for the 2024-25 Pittsburgh Penguins.

There is perhaps no better place to start than with the Penguins’ new guys.

Let’s get to it.

Blake Lizotte: Over/under 10.5 goals

Of all the Penguins offseason additions, I think Lizotte is the one that intrigues me the most. Mostly because I think he has a chance to be the type of player that general manager Kyle Dubas thought he was getting with some of his bottom-six additions a year ago. A strong, reliable defensive presence that can at least chip in some occasional offense.

But unlike Noel Acciari, Matt Nieto and most of the other players that occupied the bottom-six during the 2023-24 season, I think Lizotte might actually be pretty good at it.

He was one of the most reliable defensive forwards on the Los Angeles Kings last year, while also playing a strong penalty killing game and bringing a ton of speed and energy to the lineup.

He is fast, he is younger (by Penguins standards) and can play a variety of different roles.

But what about the offensive side of the puck? Is there anything he can do there to help out?

Expectations should probably be low for that based on his career to this point. His current career high in goals is 11, while he has reached double digits just two times in the five seasons he has played at least 40 games. He scored seven goals in 62 games this past season, which comes out to a 9.2 goal pace over 82 games. He did that while seeing his ice-time cut a little and with a small regression in his shooting percentage.

Can an increase in ice-time and a little shooting luck get him back up over the 10-goal mark?

Kevin Hayes: Over/Under 40.5 points

Prior to joining the St. Louis Blues for the 2023-24 season Hayes was pretty much always a slam-dunk lock to at least give his team 15 goals and 40 points over the course of a season.

Or at least produce at that pace.

He had actually topped the 40-point mark in six of his first nine seasons in the NHL, and in two of the years where he didn’t he scored at well over a 40-point pace with 31 points in 55 games during the 2020-21 season (a 46-point pace over 82 games) and 31 points in 48 games (a 52-point pace) during the 2021-22 season.

But after arriving in St. Louis a year ago pretty much everything about his game offensively went in the tank. Especially as it related to his assist numbers, losing 20 helpers from his 2022-23 total. Was that the result of him playing on a bad offensive team? His game starting to decline? Some bad luck and circumstances? A combination of all three?

And can a fresh start in a new environment and on a new roster make a difference?

His exact roles remains to be seen, but I do think there is a chance he can play up and down the roster in a variety of roles and he seems energized to prove he still has something left.

Can that result in him getting back to at least being a 40-point player this season?

Anthony Beauvillier: Over/Under 15.5 goals

Beauvillier is one of the many total wild cards on this roster, and I am not sure anybody really knows what to expect from him.

If nothing else, he is an intriguing reclamation project on the cheap that might have a chance to bounce back.

I think I would be a little more optimistic about adding him if there were some other more meaningful additions to the lineup and he was not going to be counted on to be such a significant player (and it kind of feels like he might be counted on for that). But he is cheap, he has a track record of being at least a decent middle-six producer and there is a chance he does see a little bit of a bounce back this season.

The 2023-24 season was a miserable one for him offensively, scoring just five goals in 60 games while bouncing between Vancouver, Chicago and Nashville.

He scored those five goals while shooting just 4.3 percent, a nearly 8 percent drop from his normal career averages.

I don’t care what kind of season he had or what you think of him as a player, there is a ton of bad luck with a 4.3 shooting percentage over 60 games, especially for a player with a proven track record of being a 15-20 goal scorer over the course of a full season.

Will some regression to the mean and perhaps an opportunity to play with a future Hall of Fame center (Sidney Crosby? Evgeni Malkin?) help him get back to that 15-20 goal level?

Matt Grzelcyk: Over/Under 20.5 Points

Grzelcyk has been a favorite of the analytics community for most of his career due to his ability to post strong possession numbers, move the puck and chip in some offense from the back end of the defense. But a lot of that disappeared during the 2023-24 season as his underlying numbers, offensive production and role all kind of disappeared for him in Boston. Was that a one-year blip or a sign of what is ahead for him in his career?