2024 Emmy Predictions: Best Pre-Recorded Variety Special
Eight months after Carol Burnett was honored with an NBC birthday special entitled “90 Years of Laughter + Love,” equally revered TV legend Dick Van Dyke’s life and career were similarly celebrated during CBS’s “98 Years of Magic.” Now, the latter program is widely predicted to emulate the former by winning the Emmy for Best Pre-Recorded Variety Special.
Included among the programs competing against the Van Dyke retrospective are three stand-up comedy specials starring Nikki Glaser, Trevor Noah, and two-time category champ Dave Chappelle. Rounding out the lineup is “Billy Joel: The 100th – Live at Madison Square Garden,” for which the titular Grammy and Tony-winning performer could receive his first Emmy.
In order to make sense of this somewhat complex race, let’s take a closer look at each nominee. Be sure to make your predictions in this and 30 other Creative Arts Emmy categories by September 7.
“Billy Joel: The 100th – Live at Madison Square Garden” (CBS)
Joel shares his second Emmy nomination (following one for 2002’s “In His Own Words”) with 15 other producers, including Paul Dugdale, who previously won for directing “Adele: One Night Only” (2022) and producing “Elton John Live: Farewell from Dodger Stadium” (2023). Due to an incident of it initially being cut short, this record-breaking 90-minute concert was presented to network audiences twice in mid-April after being filmed less than a month earlier.
“Dave Chappelle: The Dreamer” (Netflix)
“The Dreamer” follows “The Bird Revelation” (2017) and “8:46” (2020) as the third of Chappelle’s eight Netflix stand-up specials with a running time of less than one hour. The resilient comic previously conquered this category with “Equanimity” (2018) and “Sticks & Stones” (2020) and won additional Emmys for writing the latter special and guest hosting “Saturday Night Live” in 2016 and 2020.
“Dick Van Dyke: 98 Years of Magic” (CBS)
While Van Dyke isn’t personally nominated for this program in any capacity, it’s worth noting that its four bids were preceded by its subject’s historic 2024 Daytime Emmy win for guest starring on “Days of Our Lives.” This December special featured dozens of celebrities – including Jim Carrey, Jane Lynch, Martin Short, and “Weird Al” Yankovic – who paid tribute to Van Dyke as he watched from a replica of the car used in “Chitty Chitty Bang Bang.”
“Nikki Glaser: Someday You’ll Die” (HBO)
Glaser’s first Emmy notice, which is shared with her partner, Chris Convy, and past producing contenders David Jammy and Bill Urban, comes two decades into her comedy career. Her fourth stand-up special and second for HBO is directed by 12-time nominee Hamish Hamilton, who achieved his first win for “The Apple Music Super Bowl LVII Halftime Show” in 2023.
“Trevor Noah: Where Was I” (Netflix)
In Noah’s fourth Netflix special, which streamed 13 months after the Emmy-nominated “I Wish You Would,” the former host of “The Daily Show” focuses on his humorous experiences as a world traveler. Having just won a farewell Best Talk Series Emmy for “The Daily Show” last year, he now has the potential to also clinch this prize’s live counterpart for hosting and producing the 66th Grammys.
So, what will win the 2024 Emmy for Best Pre-Recorded Variety Special? Although last year’s outcome puts “98 Years of Magic” in a prime position, this situation is undeniably different in that Burnett actually won for her program while Van Dyke cannot. Those who benefit the most from the tribute special’s slight vulnerability are Joel and his group, who could win the favor of those who supported said Adele and Elton John concerts.
Since Chappelle has suffered two recent losses here and the other comedians have even lower chances of winning, this race truly comes down to two producing teams. There having never been a showdown between a network concert and a career retrospective in this specific category until now makes it difficult to settle on a side, but the Van Dyke special does have a significant edge.
PREDICT the Creative Arts Emmy winners through September 7
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