Game thread CXXIV - Royals at Reds

Can the Royals collect their first three-game sweep of a non-White Sox team since the Tigers in May?

The Royals have blown out the Reds in two straight games. Coming into the series, the Reds Pythagorean record, based on their run differential was 66-55, the same record that the Royals actually had. The Royals have beaten them so bad that they added three losses to the Reds’ pythag, who now would be expected to be 65-58 by run differential. That’s what I call a beatdown.

The Royals will have an opportunity to make it three real losses today as they conclude the series and their road trip. Brady Singer, who has been remarkably better in day games, will take the mound for KC.

Singer had three excellent starts coming out of the All-Star break but has been pretty bad in two straight after facing the Royals’ arch-nemeses the Red Sox and the Twins in back-to-back starts. Whether you believe his problem is left-handed hitters or pitching in night games, Singer seems primed to rebound today. All of the Reds’ best hitters, after Elly De La Cruz, are righties and, of course, the Royals are playing afternoon ball because it’s Sunday and they are not the Yankees, Red Sox, or Dodgers.

By the way, Singer’s day game stats are really weird. His ERA is more than a full run lower, but despite pitching a similar number of innings in the same number of starts, his home runs and walks are significantly higher while most of his other stats remain the same. It would seem he’s just better at sequencing in day games, which isn’t really a thing.

The Reds will counter with Andrew Abbott. Abbott has a respectable 3.59 ERA but his 4.79 SIERA suggests he’s been pitching over his head. Also suggesting that is the 1.62 HR/9, measly 10.5% K-BB, and 34.1% groundball rate. Those are fifth-, sixth-, and sixth-worst in MLB respectively among qualified starting pitchers. You never know when the Royals are going to flounder against a starting pitcher who seems incredibly hittable, but by golly, they’re not going to have any excuses if they miss out on crushing him.

Abbott has even alternated good and bad starts since the All-Star break culminating in a win over St. Louis in the first game of their sweep over their division rivals last week. Which means he’s due to get rocked again!

Man, those are a lot of positives for the Royals heading into today’s action. I hope this doesn’t come back to make the impending loss even more frustrating than it already will be.

Lineups

Dairon Blanco, fresh off his utter domination of the Reds last night, gets a second straight start to see if he can replicate that success. In fact, manager Matt Quatraro changed only one thing about his lineup from last night, inserting Michael Massey into it at second in Paul DeJong’s previous spot in the order, moving Maikel Garcia back to third.

As noted, the Reds’ best hitters are all righties but that doesn’t mean manager David Bell didn’t load his lineup with every lefty he has. So Singer will still have to figure out how to solve those hitters. And it isn’t like he’s impervious to righties, either. The one piece of good news is probably that Tyler Stephenson, the Reds’ starting catcher and second-best hitter, gets the day off and is replaced in the lineup by the backup catcher, Luke Maile, who will appropriately bat ninth.