An Update of the NL Wild Card Race

Wild card watching is usually left for September. But this year, with the nature of the National League standings and the addition of the third spot, the watch has begun early.

The field is large again in 2024, with five teams within five games of the third spot. The Diamondbacks and Padres currently hold the top spots with their torrid winning, and the Mets and Braves continue to fight for the third spot.

The Giants, Reds, and Cardinals are the three teams behind the Mets, but all three teams have legitimate rosters and could make a push with a hot September.

The third spot is the real uncertainty. The Braves hold it for now, but the Mets trail by a game, and the Giants by three. It’s going to come down to the wire, but the Mets were helped out after Friday’s 7-3 win over the Marlins when every other team in the field lost.

Here is an update on the NL wild-card race.

Outside Looking In

St. Louis Cardinals (60-62, 4 GB)

The Cardinals have hurt their playoff stock in the last ten games. First, they lost a one-game makeup with the Mets to lose the season series tiebreaker, then they got swept by the Reds and brought their season back to life.

Yet, despite their struggles and losing record, the Red Birds find themselves only four games back of the third wild card. It’s still possible for them to make the playoffs, but they need Paul Goldschmidt (89 OPS+) and Nolan Arenado (98 OPS+) to hit to the back of their baseball cards.

Cincinnati Reds (60-62, 4 GB)

The Reds have been hovering around the scene for the majority of the 2024 season, but haven’t made the push for a playoff spot.

Elly De La Cruz has been the guy for Cincinnati this season, but everyone else has struggled to hit. Jonathan India and Spencer Steer have regressed this season, and the pitching staff has dealt with injuries and lackluster performances. A playoff push is unlikely, but their +49 run differential and expected 64-58 record are promising signs.

The Reds aren’t dead yet, and have a September schedule that features series against teams ahead of them in the Mets, Cardinals, and Braves.

Third Place Competitors

New York Mets (63-59, 1 GB)

The Mets have had quite the season. They’ve been the worst team in the majors, the best, held the first-place wild card, and now are one game outside the picture. It’s been equivalent to a shaky wooden rollercoaster ride.

Recently, the Mets have struggled. They went 4-6 on their recent west coast road trip, then came home and lost a series to the Athletics. Not ideal in a postseason race.

But there’s still hope for this Mets squad. After they face the Marlins and Orioles at home, the club goes back to the West Coast to face the Padres and Diamondbacks for seven total games. Then, they face the Phillies seven times in September and have a three-game set in Atlanta at the end of the season.

It’s go time. And all attention will be on Francisco Lindor and co. to lead them back to the playoffs.

Atlanta Braves (64-58, –)

It’s been a rough go-around for the Braves in August. They split a series at home to the Marlins to start the month, then got swept by the Brewers. Hoping for more luck on the road, the Braves then got sucker punched by the Rockies but salvaged the trip by taking three of four from the Giants.

It’s been up and down. Inconsistent. But that’s what happens when you lose Ronald Acuña Jr. and Ozzie Albies. They hold a tight one-game lead over the Mets, which they’ll look to open up before their series at home against the Amazins to end September.

Top Two

San Diego Padres (69-54, +4.5)

After a season of .500 baseball, the Padres finally found their footing. A 19-3 stretch has propelled the Friars to a tie for the top wild card spot, solidifying the belief that this squad is October bound.

Jurickson Profar has replaced the bat of Juan Soto, leading the club with 19 homers and a 146 OPS+. Jackson Merrill has had a coming-out party as well, picking up the lineup the entire season while Fernando Tatis Jr. has been out.

Oh yeah. Remember Tatis? He’s coming back as well. Pair that with a starting three of Dylan Cease, Michael King, and one of Joe Musgrove, Matt Waldron, or a healthy Yu Darvish, and this club could be bound for the Fall Classic.

As of now, the division is the real goal. They’re three and a half games back of the Dodgers, and have a favorable September schedule that includes the Tigers and White Sox before heading back to Chavez Ravine for three more.

Arizona Diamondbacks (69-54, +4.5)

Nobody should forget about Arizona. Their season has almost mirrored the Padres, as they hovered around the wild card scene the majority of the season, and then exploded in July/August.

An 18-4 stretch has shot the DBacks up to a tie with the Padres for the first wild card spot. The resurgence of Corbin Carroll has been a driving point of their second half, and Josh Bell has hit four homers and recorded a .902 OPS in 14 games since Christian Walker was sidelined with oblique tightness.

The Snakes are heating up at the right time. And like the Padres, their rotation of Zac Gallen, Brandon Pfaadt, and Merrill Kelly (who recently returned from injury) makes them a dangerous squad.

Again, like the Padres, the DBacks are set on the division. They trail the Dodgers by three and a half games, and have a four-game series against them to end August. Afterward, the DBacks end the season with a three-game set against the Padres, which will decide the tie-breaker between the two teams.

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