Could this deep red state be a sleeper Senate win for Democrats?

North Dakota rarely makes much in the way of national news, but Democratic Senate nominee Katrina Christiansen is intent on changing that. If there’s a dark horse in the race for Democrats to keep their Senate majority, it could be her.

Christiansen is running against GOP incumbent Kevin Cramer. It’s North Dakota, so data out of the state is thin. The only independent poll conducted in 538’s list was done by Emerson College last October, which showed a substantial lead for Cramer. But it’s now 10 months later and the political world has shifted.

Christiansen’s campaign released internal polling from established firm Lake Research Partners that shows “After limited early paid communications, Christiansen is already making significant gains against Republican Senator Kevin Cramer.”

“Though this will be a challenge, with aggressive communications and outside help, Christiansen has a real opportunity to make this a competitive race and secure a win against Cramer,” the polling memo says. 

The Democrat’s message is appealing, Lake found, but another key factor is that Cramer’s support is soft.