The cost of cutting connectivity

A smart person learns from the mistakes of others, while the simpleton only learns by committing those same mistakes firsthand. Or so the saying in Urdu goes.

But, there is also a lot that never learns, just like the people running Pakistan who relish repeating the same set of self-destruction without ever grasping the consequences.

In case you were wondering, I was talking about Pakistan’s repeated adventures with the internet. Even a decade after this obsession first started on a scale, those in power are as serious as ever about reenacting the same blunders, only bigger and better this time. Whether it’s wilful ignorance, brash arrogance or just good-old incompetence, nobody knows.

What we do know is that the authorities — whichever ones call the shots — have been throttling connectivity for more than a year now, just around that fateful day we shall not name. Everyone has experienced it: at home, in the office or while commuting. Doesn’t matter if you rely on fixed or mobile broadband either.

There was already a long list of websites Big Brother had flagged for us more than a decade ago. But to make sure life goes forward, they started adding social media to that list. The first casualty was X, an obviously easy target because the people there display the audacity to not only have opinions but also voice them. Imagine the horror.

In FY23, data accounted for almost two-thirds of cellular mobile revenues, translating into a daily average of Rs1.51 billion

The next in line seems to be WhatsApp, where users have been facing recurring issues with sending or receiving any media files, such as voice notes or pictures, through mobile data.

For a second, ignore all that boring stuff like “digital rights”, as they are inevitably sidelined anyway, and focus on the hard numbers. Pakistan has made major progress in expanding access to the internet, with the broadband penetration crossing 57.05 per cent in FY24, compared to 32.55pc in FY19. However, of the 138.3 million connections, more than 97pc are mobile.

This same majority also happens to be the first, and the biggest, victim, as a significant proportion of the government’s efforts at managing the internet are channelled toward mobiles. Think of the Bykea rider who uses WhatsApp to send voice notes or any labourer who can’t read or write and this is their best communication platform.

On the bright side, the overlords have finally noticed something amiss. Last week, the Senate Standing Committee on Information Technology Minister had a hearing on the matter and sought answers from the two regulatory stakeholders, ie the telecom authority and the technology ministry. Allegedly, this slowdown may be because of the government putting up a firewall, or upgrading its “web management system”.

Apparently, it’s a routine occurrence undertaken to safeguard the cybersecurity interests of the country. Even if we take the claim at face value, we are now more than a year into this — I mean, someone needs to have a word with their technology partners and commend them on the agility of execution.

To state the obvious, such actions yield consequences that go far beyond. For starters, we have an ailing telecom sector where one multinational has already exited the market while others struggle to improve their average revenue per user. Data, and the services built on top of it, is their best bet at showing meaningful growth in dollarised terms to their sponsors abroad.

Unsurprisingly, throttling and/or blocking mobile broadband deeply impacts the telco topline. In FY23, data accounted for almost two-thirds of cellular mobile revenues and translated into a daily average of Rs1.51 billion. This is roughly the loss that the industry has to bear whenever the authorities tinker with the internet.

According to Cloudflare, Pakistan’s download speed was just 22.3 Mbps — lagging behind peers like Nigeria (26 Mbps), Indonesia (31.5 Mbps) and the Philippines (97.4 Mbps). In such an environment, telcos need to invest more to upgrade their technology and infrastructure. But obviously, the government leaves little for them after deducting 35pc in taxes and then some through internet throttling and shutdowns.

It’s already hard enough to create optimism about “Brand Pakistan”. Various industry bodies, from the premier Overseas Investors Chambers of Commerce and Industry to the software house association, have been warning about the dire consequences. Sure, some may engage in hyperbole, but the erosion of confidence has become far too obvious to ignore.

We have known for decades that it’s futile to rely on the government for anything. Electricity? Get that backup generator or UPS. Water? Call the tanker mafia. Education? Empty those pockets and send your kids to a private school. Health? Well, die. But, by and large, people begrudgingly accepted that in the private republic of Pakistan, you can at least pay to get what you want. However, no amount of money seems to be enough for a reliable internet anymore.

The writer is the co-founder of Data Darbar

Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, August 19th, 2024