Gold Derby Oscar predictions 2025: ‘A Complete Unknown’ cracks into Best Picture Top 10 [Updated August 19]
If the 2025 Oscars nominations were announced today, what would Gold Derby predict would be the nominees and winners? Our predictions center officially opened on July 1, 2024 and already more than 2,700 people have made their nominations forecasts in the eight top categories for picture, directing, acting and writing. So who’s out front to claim these golden trophies, according to the initial Gold Derby Oscar predictions 2025?
Below, see a snapshot in time of our Oscar racetrack odds, updated on August 19. (See how the odds and rankings have changed over time by examining our previous snapshots on July 3, July 9, July 16, July 23, July 29 and August 6.) Now expected to receive a nomination since the last update: director James Mangold‘s Bob Dylan biopic “A Complete Unknown” for Best Picture, and Tilda Swinton (“The Room Next Door”) for Best Supporting Actress.
Gold Derby’s Academy Awards odds are based on the combined forecasts of Experts we’ve polled from major media outlets, Editors who cover awards year-round for this website, Top 24 Users who did the best predicting the winners last time, All-Star Users who had the best prediction scores over the last two years, and the mass of Users who make up our biggest predictions bloc. We will be updating the predictions center weekly by adding, deleting and changing contenders whenever new information is provided to us by the studios/campaigners.
SEE Oscars 2025: Make your extremely early nominee predictions today!
BEST PICTURE
Predicted Nominees
1. “Sing Sing” — 15/2
2. “Dune: Part Two” — 8/1
3. “Blitz” — 9/1
4. “Conclave” — 9/1
5. “Anora” — 19/2
6. “Emilia Perez” — 23/2
7. “Joker: Folie à Deux” — 14/1
8. “Nickel Boys” — 16/1
9. “Gladiator II” — 18/1
10. “A Complete Unknown” — 30/1
Predicted Spoilers
“The Piano Lesson,” “A Real Pain,” “Wicked,” “The Room Next Door,” “Nightbitch”
See more Best Picture contenders …
BEST DIRECTOR
Predicted Nominees
1. Steve McQueen (“Blitz”) — 9/2
2. Sean Baker (“Anora”) — 5/1
3. Denis Villeneuve (“Dune: Part Two”) — 6/1
4. Edward Berger (“Conclave”) — 8/1
5. Greg Kwedar (“Sing Sing”) — 11/1
Predicted Spoilers
Jacques Audiard (“Emilia Perez”), Ridley Scott (“Gladiator II”), Pedro Almodovar (“The Room Next Door”), Mohammad Rasoulof (“The Seed of the Sacred Fig”), Marielle Heller (“Nightbitch”)
See more Best Director contenders …
BEST ACTRESS
Predicted Nominees
1. Amy Adams (“Nightbitch”) — 9/2
2. Mikey Madison (“Anora”) — 11/2
3. Karla Sofia Gascon (“Emilia Perez”) — 6/1
4. Saoirse Ronan (“Blitz”) — 7/1
5. Lady Gaga (“Joker: Folie à Deux”) — 8/1
Predicted Spoilers
Marianne Jean-Baptiste (“Hard Truths”), Julianne Moore (“The Room Next Door”), Saoirse Ronan (“The Outrun”), June Squibb (“Thelma”), Cynthia Erivo (“Wicked”)
See more Best Actress contenders …
BEST ACTOR
Predicted Nominees
1. Colman Domingo (“Sing Sing”) — 7/2
2. Ralph Fiennes (“Conclave”) — 4/1
3. Joaquin Phoenix (“Joker: Folie à Deux”) — 6/1
4. Timothee Chalamet (“A Complete Unknown”) — 7/1
5. John David Washington (“The Piano Lesson”) — 19/2
Predicted Spoilers
Paul Mescal (“Gladiator II”), Sebastian Stan (“A Different Man”), Ethan Herisse (“Nickel Boys”), Tom Hanks (“Here”), Jesse Eisenberg (“A Real Pain”)
See more Best Actor contenders …
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Predicted Nominees
1. Danielle Deadwyler (“The Piano Lesson”) — 39/10
2. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (“Nickel Boys”) — 9/2
3. Zoe Saldana (“Emilia Perez”) — 5/1
4. Isabella Rossellini (“Conclave”) — 11/2
5. Tilda Swinton (“The Room Next Door”) — 14/1
Predicted Spoilers
Toni Collette (“Juror #2”), Selena Gomez (“Emilia Perez”), Joan Chen (“Didi”), Natasha Lyonne (“His Three Daughters”), Carrie Coon (“His Three Daughters”)
See more Best Supporting Actress contenders …
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Predicted Nominees
1. Samuel L. Jackson (“The Piano Lesson”) — 19/5
2. Clarence Maclin (“Sing Sing”) — 9/2
3. Kieran Culkin (“A Real Pain”) — 5/1
4. Stanley Tucci (“Conclave”) — 6/1
5. Denzel Washington (“Gladiator II”) — 7/1
Predicted Spoilers
John Lithgow (“Conclave”), Harris Dickinson (“Blitz”), Edward Norton (“A Complete Unknown”), Pedro Pascal (“Gladiator II”), Mark Eydelshteyn (“Anora”)
See more Best Supporting Actor contenders …
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Predicted Nominees
1. “Sing Sing” — 71/20
2. “Conclave” — 9/2
3. “Nickel Boys” — 6/1
4. “Dune: Part Two” — 17/2
5. “Nightbitch” — 19/2
Predicted Spoilers
“The Piano Lesson,” “The Room Next Door,” “A Complete Unknown,” “Hit Man,” “Gladiator II”
See more Best Adapted Screenplay contenders …
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Predicted Nominees
1. “Anora” — 18/5
2. “Blitz” — 9/2
3. “A Real Pain” — 11/2
4. “Emilia Perez” — 7/1
5. “Hard Truths” — 11/1
Predicted Spoilers
“The Seed of the Sacred Fig,” “Saturday Night,” “The Substance,” “Didi,” “Challengers”
See more Best Original Screenplay contenders …
SIGN UP for Gold Derby’s free newsletter with latest predictions