Dylan Carlson is part of the Rays future

Two weeks into his Rays career, and the former top prospect may be just what Tampa Bay needs moving forward.

Dylan Carlson was a last second deal for the Rays at the 2024 trade deadline, as the Rays dealt from their veteran bullpen depth to round out the roster needs after Randy Arozarena was traded to Seattle, but the timing of the deal does not mean it was an afterthought.

Carlson has already made his presence well known by belting three homeruns and batting nine RBI in his first two weeks with the club, including a walkoff in the Rays spectacular sweep of the red hot Diamondbacks over the weekend.

Carlson has been in the league for five years now, having made his major league debut at age-21 after getting drafted 33rd overall in 2016 and rising to be a top-10 prospect in baseball. Unfortunately, due to injuries and inconsistent playing time, the switch hitting outfielder has not had the best results.

And yet, despite his dreadful results the last few seasons, since his debut rookie year he had progressively increased his BB-rate (6.7% to 10.2%) while decreasing his K rate (29.4% to 19.2%) up until the 2024 season.

Even in his disappointing seasons, he has showed real growth. The results weren’t there, but it’s clear he was making better swing decisions, or at least showing he could cut down his whiff and K rate, and there’s some early hints that this change-of-scenery candidate is continuing that trend since joining the Rays.

Yes 14 games is a matter of small sample sizes but it’s worth tracking whether he’s made some additional changes since joining the Rays and working hitting coaches Chad Mottola and Brady North. Here are a few observations:

• Carlson’s O-swing is way down from 27.8% with the Cardinals to 18.7% with the Rays, and his Z-swing is up as well. It might just be two good weeks, but it’s clear he’s still a selective hitter, but with some better decisions.
• Contact rate is up a good chunk too (from 68% in St. Louis to to 82% with the Rays)
• And there’s an increased 48.4% pull rate compared to his career average of 38.7%. His breakout 2021 was the only other season where he pulled the ball above 40% (at 41%), which means he might be dialing into the strengths of Tropicana Field.

The real tell might eventually be in his LD/GB/FB, which are still in line with career norms, but where he has a much higher HR/FB rate now that he’s finally hitting some longballs this season. It takes ~50 flyballs for this stat to stabilize, per Piper Slowinski’s Sample Size guide at FanGraphs, and Carlson only has 12 so far in his Rays career. Nevertheless, a jump from 0% with the Cardinals to 25% in Tampa Bay is noteworthy.

Add in his speed and versatility as a switch hitter, and it’s easy to imagine Kevin Cash will be penciling Carlson into the lineup moving forward.

Again, it’s only been two weeks, but with the fresh perspective of starting over with a new club and the opportunity to enter his prime at age-26 next season with a clear road to consistent playing time in left field, Carlson might be just what the rebuilding Rays need as Erik Neander and Co. look to put together the airplane midflight once again.