Midseason prospect ranking updates show Royals making slow, but steady progress
The state of the farm system.
Publications have updated their prospect evaluations mid-season following the draft and trade deadline, and the Royals’ farm system rankings can be framed in a positive or negative light. Viewed glass-half-full, the trade deadline did not deplete the farm system, and in fact, the system has improved slightly in the minds of most evaluators. Viewed glass-half-empty, the draft did not improve the farm system much, and the organization overall continues to be one of the lowest-ranked in baseball.
The Royals no longer have the worst farm system in baseball, according to Baseball America. They ranked the Royals dead last before the season, but have moved them up to #24 in their mid-season update, ranking ahead of the Braves, Astros, and Padres, among others.
After a series of fallow years following the graduation of Bobby Witt Jr., among others, Kansas City’s system is on the rise. The organization now has a Top 100 prospect—2024 first-rounder Jac Caglianone —and catchers Blake Mitchell and Carter Jensen aren’t far off. Kansas City also has a host of intriguing players up and down the minor leagues.
MLB Pipeline didn’t have the Royals ranked the worst in baseball before the year, but they didn’t have them much better at #28. In their mid-season update, they move them up o #25.
Kansas City’s two most recent first-round picks lead the way. Getting Caglianone at sixth overall this summer was a massive boon to the top of the rankings, given his plus-plus power, and the Royals seem at least open about him as a two-way option. Mitchell’s pop has played to expectations in his first full season, and he looks like the heir apparent to Salvador Perez. The Royals lack other high-ceiling names, but the depth has improved with nice steps forward by pitchers Noah Cameron and Steven Zobac and 18-year-old outfielder Asbel Gonzalez, among others.
Kiley McDaniel at ESPN didn’t budge the Royals off his #26 ranking from the preseason. He pegs a dollar amount for projected future value on the players in each system to come up with his rankings. In his rankings, he has the Royals ahead of the Braves, Astros, Rangers, and Angels.
Improbably, the Royals are going for it this year and they managed to land Caglianone at the No. 6 overall pick. They dealt Mason Barnett, Cayden Wallace and the draft pick that became Caleb Lomavita, among a few other prospects at the deadline. Caglianone is the clear star of the draft class, but David Shields is a breakthrough candidate to track closely as he could take off if his stuff takes the jump many scouts expected it to take this spring. Blake Mitchell, Carter Jensen and Ramon Ramirez give this system real catching depth, but the big hope is that the heavy investment in potential starting pitchers can show dividends in the big leagues, with Blake Wolters and Ben Kudrna having the best chance of the group right now.
The Royals are starting to land some prospects on top 100 lists. As mentioned above, Caglianone breaks onto the Baseball America list at #45. MLB Pipeline has him much higher at #18, and adds Mitchell at #45. Kiley McDaniel of ESPN has Caglianone at #26 in the 55 FV tier and Blake Mitchell at #50 in the 50 FV tier, and he even mentions Ben Kudrna among his “notable risers.”
Baseball America and MLB Pipeline have updated their rankings of top 30 Royals prospects. Gone are players the team has traded away or lost on waivers, like third baseman Cayden Wallace, and pitchers Mason Barnett, Will Klein, and John McMillon. I created a composite list of the two rankings, assigning 30 points to the top prospect on each list, 29 for the second-best, and so on.