Analyzing The NL Wild Card Race

With just over a month left in the regular season, the postseason race is about to kick into high gear, especially as it pertains to the National League Wild Card in the Mets’ case. Sitting a game-and-a-half back of the final spot, New York still has plenty of opportunities to gain ground and punch their ticket into October for the second time in three years.

Let’s take a look at how the top teams still alive in the hunt for one of the three Wild Card berths shape up leading into the final stretch of the season.

OUTSIDE LOOKING IN

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (65-64, 4 GB)

After falling to as many as six games below .500 with a 49-55 record on July 25, the San Francisco Giants remain alive on the periphery of the Wild Card race. Much like their NL West counterparts, they have come out on fire in the second half as they own a 16-9 record over their last 25 games and have put themselves in position to play meaningful baseball in September.

After cruising their way through an easy August schedule, however, the heat will turn up on the Giants to close out the season. Their next two series will come on the road against the Seattle Mariners and Milwaukee Brewers before running the gauntlet against the Arizona Diamondbacks, San Diego Padres, Brewers, Baltimore Orioles and Kansas City Royals throughout September.

NEW YORK METS (67-61, 1.5 GB)

The Mets haven’t necessarily played their best brand of baseball in August (10-10), but they still find themselves within close range of the final Wild Card spot with a massive opportunity to gain ground on both the Padres and Diamondbacks over their next six games.

After struggling through a 3-6 stretch against the Mariners, Oakland Athletics and Miami Marlins, the Mets captured a series victory over the Orioles with a pair of walk-off home runs before winning the first game of their 10-game road trip against San Diego on Thursday night.

New York sits four-and-a-half games behind the Padres after clinching the season series and tiebreaker with three contests left to play at Petco Park this weekend. The Mets will then depart for the desert and take on Arizona, who they are five games back of for the top WC spot, in a three-game set at Chase Field. It’s close to a make-or-break stretch for the club as they largely control their own destiny.

CURRENT PLAYOFF TEAMS

ATLANTA BRAVES (68-59, –) 

Considering everything the Atlanta Braves have gone through on the injury front this year, you have to give a tip of the cap to their organization for remaining in contention.

Spencer Strider and Ronald Acuña Jr. both went down for the season in the opening months while the likes of Ozzie Albies, A.J. Minter and Austin Riley either have or will miss significant time. Even so, the Braves have held one of the three Wild Card spots for almost the entire year despite several lengthy losing streaks, and appear to have found their footing after taking home seven of their last 10 games.

Atlanta will play the Washington Nationals at home this weekend before embarking on a six-game road trip against the Minnesota Twins and Philadelphia Phillies, who they are just six games behind in the NL East race.

SAN DIEGO PADRES (72-57, +3)

The Padres are an absurd 22-8 since the All-Star break, trailing only the Diamondbacks for the best record over that span. They have a top-five team OPS (.788) and wRC+ (124) during that period in addition to a 3.55 ERA and a 3.19 FIP, the latter of which is the top mark in the league by a wide margin.

San Diego is amongst the most well-rounded teams in the majors, making it a threat to go on another deep postseason run much like it did in 2022. FanGraphs currently gives the Padres a 92.4% chance of reaching October, the highest of any club in the NL Wild Card race. They are also just four-and-a-half games back of the Los Angeles Dodgers for the NL West lead with a three-game set left to go between the two sides in September.

San Diego may be slowing down just a tad after losing their last two contests by a combined 12 runs to the Twins and Mets, though its schedule eases up over the next couple of weeks as it’s set to face the St. Louis Cardinals, Tampa Bay Rays and Detroit Tigers.

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS (72-56, +3.5)

Truthfully, most of what was said about the Padres can be attributed to the Diamondbacks as well. As mentioned above, Arizona owns an MLB-best 23-8 record in the second half, which is largely a product of having the league’s highest-scoring offense over that stretch (6.32 runs per game).

The Diamondbacks were as many as seven games below .500 on May 31 and held a 46-47 record as recently as July 10. Now, they are four behind the Dodgers in their division and are primed to earn back-to-back trips to the postseason for the first time since the 2000-2001 campaigns, where they would look to repeat as National League champions.

Arizona squares off against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park this weekend before a crucial seven-game home stand against the Mets and Dodgers.

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