The 2025 mid-term elections will not only be a battle of messaging and resources. It will test the political clout and mobilization smarts of the Marcoses and the Dutertes, the two dynasties in the middle of the raging political whirlwind, and the personalities and political parties that have chosen to wear their colors. 

In this clash of political titans, the opposition faces the prospect of being reduced to the role of spectator. If they want to stay in the game and remain politically relevant in 2025 and beyond, the Liberals and their allies must not only act fast, given the time constraint. They must act smart. 

They must reckon with certain realities. Compared with presidential elections, voter turnout tapers off during midterms. In the 2019 midterms, only 46.9 million out of 61.8 million registered voters cast their votes, according to Pulse Asia. For the 2025 elections, Pulse Asia projects a turnout of 51.6 million out of an estimated 68 million voters.

The immediate and obvious task is to consolidate the Leni Robredo base. Between now and election day, they must work to rekindle the spark. Former vice president Robredo got 15 million votes in the 2022 presidential elections. It may not have been enough to win the presidency, but it could be enough to win a senate seat. (READ: The pink provinces: Where Leni Robredo won)

But 2025 is going to be a tight race, with the administration alone fielding a powerhouse slate of reelectionists and pedigreed political personalities. Both the Marcos and Duterte camps will mobilize their supporters. The opposition must look for votes elsewhere. 

A survey by Octa Research on political leanings conducted from June 26 to July 1 showed that 36% identify as pro-Marcos and 16% as pro-Duterte. Only 5% say they are with the opposition. However, 31% consider themselves independents. The Marcos and Duterte camps will surely make a play to convert the independents. The opposition needs to be in this game.  

One way forward is to cut through the noise emanating from both camps and stake one’s claim as a third force, an acceptable, viable option to the dueling camps who represent two sides of the same coin. 

Say hello to ‘Friends’

With these challenges, objective conditions, and research data laid out before them, the Liberal communications people have chosen to reintroduce three of their candidates on social media by referencing an American sitcom from the ’90s. Voters, welcome your “Friends” — Chel Diokno, Kiko Pangilinan and Bam Aquino or CheKiBam.

Say it with me: Seriously? 

You’ve seen the video. Three fully-grown men with illustrious surnames, joined by Senator Risa Hontiveros, acting like happy-go-lucky young adults, duplicating the sitcom’s opening montage and music, complete with a poor facsimile of the iconic Central Perk couch. And just in case you don’t get the reference, the team paraphrases the title and refrain from the sitcom’s theme song: We’ll be there for you.

The retro vibes, however, are not vibing. 

The dazzling insight behind this video and others like it on social escape me at this point. What really is the objective? To wake up the Robredo base with the same type of viral videos that exposed the former vice president to ridicule during the campaign? 

Perhaps they believe, in their heart of hearts, that those videos succeeded in securing 15 million votes for Robredo. But with all due respect, Leni Robredo didn’t get 15 million votes because she donned a kimono and did the “hadouken.” She got 15 million votes despite them. 

While her campaign faltered in fully articulating an overarching message, in the eyes of her supporters Leni Robredo was a transcendent figure, a moral compass in uncertain times. Robredo wasn’t the messenger. She was The Message.

Is it to increase awareness? Diokno, Pangilinan, and Aquino are old names in politics. Two of them — Pangilinan and Aquino — were former senators, while Diokno ran for the Senate before. Their individual levels of awareness would probably poll at around 90 per cent. 

Awareness is not the concern that should be addressed. The problem is trust.  

Regaining trust

Through relentless harassment and slander, former president Rodrigo Duterte succeeded in breaking the opposition’s political backbone and undermining trust in their key personalities. This was evident in 2019 and 2022, when they were routed in the senatorial polls. 

In politics there are many ways to earn or regain trust. I’m not sure if feigned cuteness on Insta or TikTok is one of them. 

For one, it fails the test of authenticity. 

Throughout their political careers, the three Liberal candidates have not been associated with levity or pa-kenkoy. It would require unshakeable confidence bordering on hubris to think that independent voters would be swayed by videos of Liberal candidates making faces or goofing off on social. 

And to energize the Robredo base, the candidates should be seen as faithful and committed to the cause, worthy torchbearers who deserve a seat alongside Hontiveros who is doing a fantastic job in the Senate. But grouping them as “seatmates” on a couch is a lame attempt at a pun. 

Then there’s the lack of understanding of Pinoy pop culture. If the intent is to establish affinity with voters who grew up in the ’90s, an American sitcom about six friends living in New York that aired locally on cable may resonate with the middle and upper classes. But not with class D and E whose primetime TV fare was “Home Along Da Riles.” 

To put it plainly, and again with all due respect, the campaign should rethink its targeting, message, execution, and pop culture touchstone. Earning trust is hard enough. Converting trust to actual votes would be a harder slog if the campaign pursues a communications plan that’s long on gimmicks but short on contrast and substance. 

If the Liberals continue to ignore the lessons of 2019 and 2022, “I’ll Be There For You” by the Rembrandts should be replaced by the more appropriate “Di Na Natuto” by Gary V. And yes, that’s a Pinoy pop culture reference for you. – Rappler.com

Joey Salgado is a former journalist, and a government and political communications practitioner. He served as spokesperson for former vice president Jejomar Binay.