'Very much like 2020': Fox News poll shows Harris leading Trump in key Sun Belt states
Experts weighed in on a new Fox News poll released Wednesday evening that showed Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris gaining ground in Sun Belt swing states as Donald Trump's support "held steady."
Fox News sent out statewide surveys to 1,000 registered voters in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina. The surveys were conducted after the Democratic National Convention and after Robert F. Kennedy Jr. endorsed Trump.
"Harris is up by 1 percentage point in Arizona and by 2 points in Georgia and Nevada, while Trump is ahead by 1 point in North Carolina. All are within the margin of sampling error," Fox News reported.
That's a marked change since past surveys by the outlet showed Biden trailing Trump in each of the states by 5 or 6 points.
The poll sent waves through social media Wednesday from pollsters, strategists and others.
"FoxNews poll is another reliable poll showing stubborn Latino support for Trump," wrote Lincoln Project co-founder and Republican strategist Mike Madrid. "Harris 55%Trump 42%"
He added that the numbers among Republicans weren't as strong for Harris as they were for Biden four years ago — "but only nominally."
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"The environment is there to make bigger gains but it won’t be done on cable news, Twitter or on-line," he said.
Madrid added that the Presidential race is shaping up to be "very much like 2020 - like VERY much like 2020."
Statistician Nate Silver, founder of FiveThirtyEight, echoed Madrid's comment, saying the Fox News poll results "are basically exactly Biden 2020's actual results when he won the popular vote by 4.5 points."
Sam Brodey, national political reporter for The Boston Globe, called the poll "very notable."
"Fox polled Arizona and Nevada's abortion rights ballot initiatives and they are extremely popular," he said, pointing to the section of the surveys that showed "three-quarters of voters in each state will vote yes. That includes at least half of Republicans (50% in Arizona and 54% in Nevada)."
David Weigel, political reporter for Semafor, said the poll showed down-ballot races continue to be "awful" for Republicans.
"AZSen: Gallego (D) +15NVSen: Rosen (D) +14NCGov: Stein (D) +11," he wrote.