Conservative analyst begs Republicans to not blow Senate races in case Harris wins

With the presidential race shaping up to be much harder for former President Donald Trump than it looked earlier in the summer, and Democrats having an excellent shot at retaking the majority in the House of Representatives, Republicans need to put more of their energy into ensuring they win a majority in the Senate, National Review correspondent Jim Geraghty wrote for The Washington Post.

The 2024 Senate cycle is, all told, one of the best possible for Republicans, with one autoflip in West Virginia as Sen. Joe Manchin retires, Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) struggling in polls, and nearly every competitive race being a Democratic incumbent on defense, with Democrats' offensive opportunities being only outside shots at Sens. Ted Cruz (R-TX) and Rick Scott (R-FL), neither of whom look terribly in danger.

"It is likely, then, but not guaranteed, that Republicans will have at least 51 Senate seats in January," he wrote. "Keep in mind, if Kamala Harris wins the presidency, there’s a world of difference between a Democrat-led Senate where Tim Walz breaks the ties and a Republican-led Senate where one of three competing Republicans — John Cornyn of Texas, John Thune of South Dakota or Rick Scott of Florida — calls the shots as the chamber’s majority leader."

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Nonetheless, Geraghty added, Republicans are making this as hard for themselves as they can, with candidates underperforming badly in almost every battleground state.

"In Arizona, Kari Lake consistently trails Democrat Ruben Gallego, often outside the margin of error," he wrote. "Mike Rogers in Michigan lags Democrat Elissa Slotkin, but at least he’s kept it close in several polls this summer. "In Ohio, Republican Bernie Moreno falls short in the polls against incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown by four to six percentage points. Keep in mind, Donald Trump is probably going to win Ohio by double digits, and has Ohio’s other senator as his running mate. Moreno needs all the coattails he can get."

It's the same story in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Nevada, where all the Republican challengers are trailing.

"I’d love to blame Trump for this swing-state weakness, but in all those states, he outpolls his party’s would-be senators," he wrote. What is clear regardless, he added, is that "there’s no point in waiting for help from the presidential nominee" — Republicans need Nikki Haley voters to outperform in the Senate, and Trump has shown no interest in courting their vote.

"Disaffected Republicans, exhausted with a presidential nominee who seems determined to throw away every opportunity, might find it more worthwhile to focus their efforts elsewhere: building the strongest possible Republican majority in the Senate," Geraghty concluded.